ChampionshipDerby vs Birmingham Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 71.7%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Derby are favoured at 38.7%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Derby by 1 | 21.0% |
| Derby by 2 | 11.5% |
| Derby by 3+ | 6.3% |
| Birmingham by 1 | 19.0% |
| Birmingham by 2 | 9.5% |
| Birmingham by 3+ | 4.5% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
Goal handicap
| Derby line | Derby | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.7% | 82.3% |
| -0.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| +0.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| +1.5 | 86.0% | 14.0% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Derby goals scored per game1.8Derby goals conceded per game1.3Birmingham goals scored per game1.3Birmingham goals conceded per gameDouble chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Derby or Birmingham on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
51.3%Both Teams to Score45.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Derby are favoured at 38.7%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Derby 1 · 2 draws · Birmingham 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Derby vs Birmingham?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Derby vs Birmingham at 71.7%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Derby vs Birmingham?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Derby at 54.0% and Birmingham at 46.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.