ChampionshipDerby vs Birmingham Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 13.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Derby have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded, Birmingham 1.6 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.4% for over 2.5 and 71.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
| 0-0 | 8.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
| 0-2 | 5.8% |
Score probability grid
| Derby \ Birmingham | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Derby goals, columns = Birmingham. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
51.3%Both Teams to Score45.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 45.4% for three or more goals and 71.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Derby favoured at 38.7%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Derby 1 · 2 draws · Birmingham 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Derby vs Birmingham?
The model's most likely scoreline for Derby vs Birmingham is 1-1 at 13.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Championship, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.