Eredivisie
Den Haag vs 
Cambuur Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 63.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.4% for over 22.5 to 41.1% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.1%. On the shot count, Den Haag are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.5%, with a level count at 5.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 41.1% | 58.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
76.6%
62.7%
48.0%
64.4%
48.3%
33.5%
Shot handicap
| Den Haag line | Den Haag | Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| -2.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| -0.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| +0.5 | 62.9% | 37.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 85.3% | 14.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 56.6% | 43.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
10.8Den Haag shots per game17.5Den Haag shots faced per game12.5Cambuur shots per game15.5Cambuur shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Den Haag.
In-depth analysis
63.1%Over 24.5 shots62.7%Den Haag over 12.5 shots48.3%Cambuur over 12.5 shots77.1%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Den Haag over 12.5 shots sits at 62.7% and Cambuur at 48.3%. This season Den Haag have averaged 10.8 shots a game and Cambuur 12.5.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Den Haag vs Cambuur?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 63.1% for Den Haag vs Cambuur.
Which team will have more shots in Den Haag vs Cambuur?
The model rates Den Haag to take more shots at 57.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
