AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
CreweCreweDDDDD
Full time3-1Sat, 3 Oct 20263/1015:00UK
Bristol RvsBristol RvsWWLLW

Crewe 3-1 Bristol Rovers cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.1%

Result

Crewe3-1Bristol Rvs
8 yellow cardsCrewe 4, Bristol Rvs 4
0 red cardsCrewe 0, Bristol Rvs 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.9% and it landed (8 in the match). We called No at 81.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.9%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Matthew Russell

Recorded match referee.

Matthew Russell in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 35 3
Goals 2.60 Not available
Yellow cards 2.83 Not available
Red cards 0.11 Not available
Corners 10.4 Not available
Fouls 21.6 Not available
Both teams scored 57% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 57% Not available
Home wins 34% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
3 Oct 2026 Crewe vs Bristol Rvs 3-1 4 Yes 8 0 8 36
1 Sep 2026 Salford vs Newport County 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 10 30
22 Aug 2026 Walsall vs Grimsby 0-0 0 No 2 0 15 27
7 Feb 2026 Bristol Rvs vs Chesterfield 2-3 5 Yes 5 0 12 23
17 Jan 2026 Crawley Town vs Notts County 1-2 3 Yes 3 1 12 27
29 Dec 2025 Gillingham vs Colchester 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 11 36
22 Nov 2025 Bromley vs Salford 2-0 2 No 2 0 11 27
11 Oct 2025 Shrewsbury vs Cambridge 2-0 2 No 3 0 6 17
30 Aug 2025 Crewe vs Swindon 0-3 3 No 2 0 7 25
2 Aug 2025 Milton Keynes Dons vs Oldham 0-0 0 No 4 0 10 33

Matthew Russell referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crewe vs Bristol Rvs. It tips Bristol Rvs for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.9% 25.2%
3.5 cards 54.9% 45.1%
4.5 cards 35.4% 64.6%
5.5 cards 20.1% 79.9%

Who picks up more cards

Crewe
29.2%
Level
20.3%
Bristol Rvs
50.5%

Team cards lines

Crewe

Over 1.5
50.1%
Over 2.5
23.8%

Bristol Rvs

Over 1.5
65.3%
Over 2.5
38.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Crewe's; Bristol Rvs gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Crewe line Crewe Bristol Rvs
-1.5 14.1% 85.9%
-0.5 29.2% 70.8%
+0.5 49.5% 50.5%
+1.5 69.6% 30.4%

Red card

Any red card18.1%
Crewe red card5.6%
Bristol Rvs red card13.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.4% 25.6%
22.5 fouls 60.3% 39.7%
24.5 fouls 45.2% 54.8%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 54.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.9% for over 2.5 to 20.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.9%. Head to head on cards, Bristol Rvs are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.5%, with a level count at 20.3%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Crewe over 1.5 cards sits at 50.1% and Bristol Rvs at 65.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.1% (Crewe 5.6%, Bristol Rvs 13.3%). This season Crewe have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Bristol Rvs 2.1.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

54.9%Over 3.5 cards
18.1%Any red card
50.5%Most cards: Bristol Rvs
50.1%Crewe over 1.5 cards
65.3%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards
60.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBristol Rvs are the pick to collect more cards at 50.5%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CreweCrewe

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Bristol RvsBristol Rvs
Statistic
Crewe
Bristol Rvs
cards per game
1.8
2.1

fouls per game
13.3
11.4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Crewe vs Bristol Rvs?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.9% for Crewe vs Bristol Rvs.
Will there be a red card in Crewe vs Bristol Rvs?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crewe vs Bristol Rvs?
Before kickoff, the model rated Bristol Rvs to pick up more cards at 50.5%, with a level count at 20.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoCrewe fixtures and statsBristol Rovers fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.