AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

League Two
Crawley TownCrawley TownLLDLL
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
TranmereTranmereDLDLW

Crawley Town 1-1 Tranmere cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.9%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.1%

Result

Crawley Town1-1Tranmere
3 yellow cardsCrawley Town 1, Tranmere 2
0 red cardsCrawley Town 0, Tranmere 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 57.9% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 78.1% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards57.9%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

L Sandoe

Recorded match referee.

L Sandoe in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 6 3
Goals 1.67 Not available
Yellow cards 3.33 Not available
Red cards 0.00 Not available
Corners 10.2 Not available
Fouls 19.7 Not available
Both teams scored 33% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 0% Not available
Home wins 33% Not available
Latest 6 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Crawley Town vs Tranmere 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 20 20
3 Oct 2026 Exeter vs Rotherham 1-0 1 No 3 0 10 21
22 Aug 2026 Crewe vs Northampton 1-0 1 No 2 0 13 26
14 Mar 2026 Shrewsbury vs Cheltenham 0-2 2 No 5 0 3 15
7 Mar 2026 Gillingham vs Fleetwood Town 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 4 19
21 Feb 2026 Newport County vs Cambridge 0-2 2 No 4 0 11 17

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crawley Town vs Tranmere. It tips Tranmere for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 77.1% 22.9%
3.5 cards 57.9% 42.1%
4.5 cards 38.4% 61.6%
5.5 cards 22.5% 77.5%

Who picks up more cards

Crawley Town
31.4%
Level
20.1%
Tranmere
48.5%

Team cards lines

Crawley Town

Over 1.5
54.0%
Over 2.5
27.2%

Tranmere

Over 1.5
65.9%
Over 2.5
39.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Crawley Town's; Tranmere gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Crawley Town line Crawley Town Tranmere
-1.5 15.9% 84.1%
-0.5 31.4% 68.6%
+0.5 51.5% 48.5%
+1.5 70.9% 29.1%

Red card

Any red card21.9%
Crawley Town red card11.6%
Tranmere red card11.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 71.2% 28.8%
22.5 fouls 56.5% 43.5%
24.5 fouls 41.3% 58.7%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 57.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.1% for over 2.5 to 22.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.9%. On the card count, Tranmere are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 20.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Crawley Town over 1.5 cards sits at 54.0% and Tranmere at 65.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.9% (Crawley Town 11.6%, Tranmere 11.6%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

57.9%Over 3.5 cards
21.9%Any red card
48.5%Most cards: Tranmere
54.0%Crawley Town over 1.5 cards
65.9%Tranmere over 1.5 cards
56.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.9% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.9%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianTranmere are the pick to collect more cards at 48.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 57.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.9% for Crawley Town vs Tranmere.
Will there be a red card in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crawley Town vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated Tranmere to pick up more cards at 48.5%, with a level count at 20.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoCrawley Town fixtures and statsTranmere fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.