AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
Crawley TownCrawley TownDLLLD
Full time2-3Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
ShrewsburyShrewsburyWDDWL

Crawley Town 2-3 Shrewsbury cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined61.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined38.7%

Result

Crawley Town2-3Shrewsbury
5 yellow cardsCrawley Town 2, Shrewsbury 3
0 red cardsCrawley Town 0, Shrewsbury 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 61.3% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 88.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards61.3%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Isaac Searle

Recorded match referee.

Isaac Searle in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 10 4
Goals 2.40 Not available
Yellow cards 3.40 Not available
Red cards 0.10 Not available
Corners 10.1 Not available
Fouls 20.4 Not available
Both teams scored 50% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 40% Not available
Home wins 40% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury 2-3 5 Yes 5 0 6 16
26 Sep 2026 Oldham vs Salford 1-4 5 Yes 2 0 16 26
19 Sep 2026 Exeter vs Tranmere 0-0 0 No 5 0 8 26
29 Aug 2026 Shrewsbury vs Salford 1-0 1 No 1 0 8 24
17 Mar 2026 Salford vs Barrow 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 7 15
3 Mar 2026 Newport County vs Tranmere 3-1 4 Yes 4 1 12 16
17 Feb 2026 Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town 0-0 0 No 4 0 11 21
24 Jan 2026 Notts County vs Crewe 1-0 1 No 4 0 12 22
29 Dec 2025 Cheltenham vs Swindon 0-2 2 No 2 0 11 15
13 Dec 2025 Walsall vs Shrewsbury 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 10 23

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury. It tips Shrewsbury for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 79.5% 20.5%
3.5 cards 61.3% 38.8%
4.5 cards 41.9% 58.1%
5.5 cards 25.4% 74.6%

Who picks up more cards

Crawley Town
28.0%
Level
19.1%
Shrewsbury
52.9%

Team cards lines

Crawley Town

Over 1.5
53.2%
Over 2.5
26.5%

Shrewsbury

Over 1.5
70.4%
Over 2.5
44.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Crawley Town's; Shrewsbury gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Crawley Town line Crawley Town Shrewsbury
-1.5 13.8% 86.2%
-0.5 28.0% 72.1%
+0.5 47.1% 52.9%
+1.5 66.6% 33.4%

Red card

Any red card11.4%
Crawley Town red card5.3%
Shrewsbury red card6.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 76.2% 23.8%
22.5 fouls 62.5% 37.6%
24.5 fouls 47.4% 52.6%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 61.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 79.5% for over 2.5 to 25.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.9%. Head to head on cards, Shrewsbury are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.9%, with a level count at 19.1%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Crawley Town over 1.5 cards sits at 53.2% and Shrewsbury at 70.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Crawley Town 5.3%, Shrewsbury 6.5%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

61.3%Over 3.5 cards
11.4%Any red card
52.9%Most cards: Shrewsbury
53.2%Crawley Town over 1.5 cards
70.4%Shrewsbury over 1.5 cards
62.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 61.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianShrewsbury are the pick to collect more cards at 52.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 41.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 61.3% for Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury.
Will there be a red card in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury?
Before kickoff, the model rated Shrewsbury to pick up more cards at 52.9%, with a level count at 19.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoCrawley Town fixtures and statsShrewsbury fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.