AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

League Two
ChesterfieldChesterfieldDDWWL
Full time4-2Sat, 3 Oct 20263/1012:30UK
TranmereTranmereDWLDD

Chesterfield 4-2 Tranmere cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.5%

Result

Chesterfield4-2Tranmere
6 yellow cardsChesterfield 3, Tranmere 3
0 red cardsChesterfield 0, Tranmere 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 55.5% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 86.0% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards55.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Thomas Parsons

Recorded match referee.

Thomas Parsons in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 60 4
Goals 2.68 Not available
Yellow cards 4.52 Not available
Red cards 0.19 Not available
Corners 10.0 Not available
Fouls 24.7 Not available
Both teams scored 60% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 48% Not available
Home wins 42% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Lincoln vs BurnleyChampionship 4-1 5 Yes 2 0 7 19
3 Oct 2026 Chesterfield vs Tranmere 4-2 6 Yes 6 0 13 24
19 Sep 2026 QPR vs PrestonChampionship 2-2 4 Yes 4 1 12 21
12 Sep 2026 Bolton vs CardiffChampionship 1-0 1 No 7 0 12 29
15 May 2026 Notts County vs Chesterfield 0-0 0 No 2 Not available 11 30
2 May 2026 Harrogate vs Barnet 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 10 24
25 Apr 2026 Norwich vs SwanseaChampionship 1-1 2 Yes 8 0 7 22
18 Apr 2026 Sheffield Weds vs CharltonChampionship 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 9 30
28 Mar 2026 Salford vs Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 1 No 3 1 8 25
21 Mar 2026 Tranmere vs Swindon 0-1 1 No 1 0 14 21

Thomas Parsons referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chesterfield vs Tranmere. Slightly more cards are projected for Tranmere for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 75.4% 24.7%
3.5 cards 55.5% 44.5%
4.5 cards 36.0% 64.0%
5.5 cards 20.6% 79.4%

Who picks up more cards

Chesterfield
24.6%
Level
19.3%
Tranmere
56.1%

Team cards lines

Chesterfield

Over 1.5
46.1%
Over 2.5
20.6%

Tranmere

Over 1.5
68.9%
Over 2.5
42.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Chesterfield's; Tranmere gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Chesterfield line Chesterfield Tranmere
-1.5 11.2% 88.8%
-0.5 24.6% 75.4%
+0.5 43.9% 56.1%
+1.5 64.5% 35.5%

Red card

Any red card14.0%
Chesterfield red card7.2%
Tranmere red card7.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.8% 37.2%
22.5 fouls 47.0% 53.0%
24.5 fouls 32.2% 67.8%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 75.4% for over 2.5 to 20.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.5%. Head to head on cards, Tranmere are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 56.1%, with a level count at 19.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Chesterfield over 1.5 cards sits at 46.1% and Tranmere at 68.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.0% (Chesterfield 7.2%, Tranmere 7.3%). This season Chesterfield have averaged 1.6 cards a game and Tranmere 2.5.

55.5%Over 3.5 cards
14.0%Any red card
56.1%Most cards: Tranmere
46.1%Chesterfield over 1.5 cards
68.9%Tranmere over 1.5 cards
47.0%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.0%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianTranmere are the pick to collect more cards at 56.1%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 55.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ChesterfieldChesterfield

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

TranmereTranmere
Statistic
Chesterfield
Tranmere
cards per game
1.6
2.5

fouls per game
10.1
11.5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Chesterfield vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.5% for Chesterfield vs Tranmere.
Will there be a red card in Chesterfield vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Chesterfield vs Tranmere?
Before kickoff, the model rated Tranmere to pick up more cards at 56.1%, with a level count at 19.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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League TwoChesterfield fixtures and statsTranmere fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.