AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
ChesterfieldChesterfieldWWLWD
Full time1-1Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
ColchesterColchesterLDDDL

Chesterfield 1-1 Colchester cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.5%

Result

Chesterfield1-1Colchester
5 yellow cardsChesterfield 3, Colchester 2
0 red cardsChesterfield 0, Colchester 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 56.5% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 89.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards56.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Paul Howard

Recorded match referee.

Paul Howard in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 76 2
Goals 2.75 Not available
Yellow cards 3.24 Not available
Red cards 0.17 Not available
Corners 10.3 Not available
Fouls 22.3 Not available
Both teams scored 57% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 55% Not available
Home wins 36% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Chesterfield vs Colchester 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 9 24
15 Aug 2026 Oldham vs Port Vale 2-0 2 No 6 0 7 28
10 Apr 2026 Colchester vs Swindon 3-0 3 No 1 1 11 16
6 Apr 2026 Crewe vs Salford 1-0 1 No 2 0 7 28
17 Mar 2026 Newport County vs Bromley 0-1 1 No 4 0 13 20
21 Feb 2026 Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 1-1 2 Yes 6 0 8 24
20 Dec 2025 Shrewsbury vs Chesterfield 0-1 1 No 3 0 7 20
22 Nov 2025 Cheltenham vs Bristol Rvs 1-0 1 No 5 0 13 24
15 Nov 2025 Gillingham vs Crawley Town 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 15 19
1 Mar 2025 Walsall vs Swindon 0-1 1 No 4 0 12 22

Paul Howard referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Chesterfield vs Colchester. The model leans toward Colchester for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.1% 23.9%
3.5 cards 56.5% 43.5%
4.5 cards 37.0% 63.0%
5.5 cards 21.4% 78.6%

Who picks up more cards

Chesterfield
32.0%
Level
20.3%
Colchester
47.6%

Team cards lines

Chesterfield

Over 1.5
53.5%
Over 2.5
26.8%

Colchester

Over 1.5
64.5%
Over 2.5
37.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Chesterfield's; Colchester gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Chesterfield line Chesterfield Colchester
-1.5 16.2% 83.8%
-0.5 32.0% 68.0%
+0.5 52.4% 47.6%
+1.5 71.8% 28.2%

Red card

Any red card10.6%
Chesterfield red card5.5%
Colchester red card5.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.8% 29.2%
22.5 fouls 56.0% 44.0%
24.5 fouls 40.8% 59.2%
ChesterfieldChesterfield

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Chesterfield at home and Colchester away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

ColchesterColchester
Statistic
Chesterfield
Colchester
Cards per game at this venue
·
0.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.0

Matches with card data
1
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 56.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.1% for over 2.5 to 21.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.5%. Between the two sides, Colchester are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.6%, with a level count at 20.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Chesterfield over 1.5 cards sits at 53.5% and Colchester at 64.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.6% (Chesterfield 5.5%, Colchester 5.4%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

56.5%Over 3.5 cards
10.6%Any red card
47.6%Most cards: Colchester
53.5%Chesterfield over 1.5 cards
64.5%Colchester over 1.5 cards
56.0%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 10.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianColchester are the pick to collect more cards at 47.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 56.5%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 56.5% for Chesterfield vs Colchester.
Will there be a red card in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 10.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated Colchester to pick up more cards at 47.6%, with a level count at 20.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More League Two, Cards

Barnet vs York predictionNewport County vs Chesterfield cards predictionGrimsby vs York cards predictionPort Vale vs Rochdale cards predictionAccrington vs Northampton cards predictionColchester vs Walsall cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

League TwoChesterfield fixtures and statsColchester fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.