Cheltenham 0-2 Salford cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Cheltenham0-2Salford
We called Under 3.5 at 51.7% and it missed (9 in the match). We called No at 89.6% and it missed (1 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards48.3%
Match referee
The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.
Recorded match referee.
| Per match | All matches | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 92 | 2 |
| Goals | 2.55 | Not available |
| Yellow cards | 3.52 | Not available |
| Red cards | 0.24 | Not available |
| Corners | 10.0 | Not available |
| Fouls | 24.3 | Not available |
| Both teams scored | 52% | Not available |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Not available |
| Home wins | 42% | Not available |
| Date | Match | Score | Goals | BTTS | Yellow | Red | Corners | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Cheltenham vs Salford | 0-2 | 2 | No | 9 | 1 | 8 | 26 |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Rotherham vs Crewe | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 5 | 28 |
| 2 May 2026 | Gillingham vs Shrewsbury | 1-0 | 1 | No | 3 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Newport County vs Oldham | 3-2 | 5 | Yes | 4 | 1 | 10 | 33 |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Grimsby vs Crewe | 3-2 | 5 | Yes | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 Apr 2026 | Barnet vs Bromley | 2-2 | 4 | Yes | 5 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Bristol Rvs vs Shrewsbury | 1-0 | 1 | No | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Fleetwood Town vs Cheltenham | 2-2 | 4 | Yes | 5 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Salford vs Newport County | 1-3 | 4 | Yes | 9 | 0 | 10 | 32 |
| 7 Feb 2026 | Swindon vs Oldham | 3-0 | 3 | No | 5 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cheltenham vs Salford. The model leans toward Salford for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 69.6% | 30.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.5% | 84.5% |
Who picks up more cards
CheltenhamSalfordTeam cards lines
Cheltenham
Salford
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cheltenham's; Salford gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Cheltenham line | Cheltenham | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.4% | 85.6% |
| -0.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| +0.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| +1.5 | 72.4% | 27.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.8% | 60.2% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | I Searle | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
Swipe to see all referee stats →
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Cheltenham at home and Salford away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 48.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.6% for over 2.5 to 15.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.3%. Head to head on cards, Salford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.1%, with a level count at 21.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Cheltenham over 1.5 cards sits at 46.8% and Salford at 59.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.4% (Cheltenham 3.4%, Salford 7.3%). Salford’s most frequent referee this season, I Searle, has averaged 1.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Cheltenham have averaged 2.3 cards a game and Salford 1.6.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Cheltenham vs Salford?
Will there be a red card in Cheltenham vs Salford?
Which team will pick up more cards in Cheltenham vs Salford?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
