AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
CheltenhamCheltenhamWDWLL
Full time4-2Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
Fleetwood TownFleetwood TownDLLLD

Cheltenham 4-2 Fleetwood Town cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.2%

Result

Cheltenham4-2Fleetwood Town
5 yellow cardsCheltenham 2, Fleetwood Town 3
0 red cardsCheltenham 0, Fleetwood Town 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.8% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 85.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Oliver Mackey

Recorded match referee.

Oliver Mackey in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 20 3
Goals 3.35 Not available
Yellow cards 3.85 Not available
Red cards 0.10 Not available
Corners 10.4 Not available
Fouls 25.1 Not available
Both teams scored 65% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 75% Not available
Home wins 45% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town 4-2 6 Yes 5 0 11 28
10 Oct 2026 Newport County vs Colchester 1-0 1 No 3 0 9 35
1 Sep 2026 Crewe vs Walsall 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 13 25
18 Apr 2026 Gillingham vs Grimsby 1-4 5 Yes 3 0 8 20
3 Apr 2026 Accrington vs Crewe 2-0 2 No 4 0 11 27
14 Mar 2026 Barnet vs Newport County 1-2 3 Yes 3 0 11 29
27 Jan 2026 Harrogate vs Fleetwood Town 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 11 20
29 Dec 2025 Walsall vs Oldham 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 11 28
11 Oct 2025 Chesterfield vs Salford 2-0 2 No 5 0 11 25
4 Oct 2025 Notts County vs Oldham 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 11 14

Oliver Mackey referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town. The model leans toward Fleetwood Town for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.2% 26.8%
3.5 cards 52.8% 47.2%
4.5 cards 33.3% 66.7%
5.5 cards 18.5% 81.5%

Who picks up more cards

Cheltenham
29.1%
Level
20.6%
Fleetwood Town
50.3%

Team cards lines

Cheltenham

Over 1.5
48.6%
Over 2.5
22.5%

Fleetwood Town

Over 1.5
63.9%
Over 2.5
37.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cheltenham's; Fleetwood Town gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cheltenham line Cheltenham Fleetwood Town
-1.5 13.9% 86.1%
-0.5 29.1% 70.9%
+0.5 49.7% 50.3%
+1.5 70.0% 30.0%

Red card

Any red card14.5%
Cheltenham red card11.0%
Fleetwood Town red card3.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.0% 34.0%
22.5 fouls 50.6% 49.4%
24.5 fouls 35.5% 64.5%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.2% for over 2.5 to 18.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. On the card count, Fleetwood Town are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 50.3%, with a level count at 20.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Cheltenham over 1.5 cards sits at 48.6% and Fleetwood Town at 63.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.5% (Cheltenham 11.0%, Fleetwood Town 3.9%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.8%Over 3.5 cards
14.5%Any red card
50.3%Most cards: Fleetwood Town
48.6%Cheltenham over 1.5 cards
63.9%Fleetwood Town over 1.5 cards
50.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 14.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianFleetwood Town are the pick to collect more cards at 50.3%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 52.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.8% for Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town.
Will there be a red card in Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fleetwood Town to pick up more cards at 50.3%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoCheltenham fixtures and statsFleetwood Town fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.