Segunda DivisiónCeuta vs 
Valladolid Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 13.6% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Ceuta have averaged 0.4 scored and 3.0 conceded, Valladolid 0.4 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 43.9% for over 2.5 and 70.5% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% |
| 0-1 | 9.5% |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
| 0-2 | 5.9% |
Score probability grid
| Ceuta \ Valladolid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Ceuta goals, columns = Valladolid. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
50.0%Both Teams to Score43.9%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 43.9% for three or more goals and 70.5% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Ceuta favoured at 38.5%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ceuta 0 · 0 draws · Valladolid 2 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Ceuta vs Valladolid?
The model's most likely scoreline for Ceuta vs Valladolid is 1-1 at 13.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Segunda División, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
