Ceuta versus Valladolid in the Segunda División on 20 September 2026 is finely balanced. Ceuta edge it at 38%, but the gap to the field is slim. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Bookmakers see it the same way, 36% on Ceuta, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. 3) The run in: Ceuta arrive W1 D0 L5, Valladolid W1 D1 L4. The recent series reads 0 wins for Ceuta, 0 draws and 2 for Valladolid over 2 games, 3.0 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 2.5 goals43.9%@ 2.28
Over 9.5 corners43.3%@ 2.31
Over 10.5 corners33.2%@ 3.01
Medium risk
Under 2.5 goals56.1%@ 1.78
Over 8.5 corners54.4%@ 1.84
Both teams to score50.0%@ 2.00
Random finds
1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.35
1-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.48
0-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.50
Model vs market
Ceuta
38.5%+2.5%
Draw
28.7%+0.7%
Valladolid
32.8%-3.2%
ModelMarket
value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely70.5%Fair 1.42
Over 2.5Unlikely43.9%Fair 2.28
BTTS · YesClose call50.0%Fair 2.00
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call54.4%Fair 1.84
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely43.3%Fair 2.31
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely33.2%Fair 3.01
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot24.5%Fair 4.08
Most cornersCeuta51.9%Valladolid36.6%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely61.2%Fair 1.63
Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.3%Fair 2.07
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely35.9%Fair 2.79
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot25.0%Fair 3.99
Recent shot volume
Ceuta11.2 taken13.3 faced
Valladolid11.2 taken13.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
BookmakerOur fair
Ceuta win2.572.60
Draw3.253.48
Valladolid win2.573.05
Over 2.5 goals2.002.28
Under 2.5 goals1.801.78
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Ceuta win2.60
Draw3.49
Valladolid win3.05
Both teams to score2.00
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.28
Over 3.5 goals4.38
Ceuta most2.60
Valladolid most3.05
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.46
Over 8.5 corners1.78
Over 9.5 corners2.29
Over 10.5 corners3.09
Ceuta most1.92
Valladolid most2.72
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.12
Over 3.5 cards1.30
Over 4.5 cards1.65
Over 5.5 cards2.32
Ceuta most2.66
Valladolid most2.24
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.67
Over 8.5 SoT2.15
Over 9.5 SoT2.92
Ceuta most1.87
Valladolid most3.00
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.07
Over 26.5 shots2.79
Over 28.5 shots3.99
Ceuta most1.63
Valladolid most3.08
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.12
Over 22.5 fouls1.22
Over 24.5 fouls1.41
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
61.2%
Over 24.5
48.3%
Over 26.5
35.9%
Over 28.5
25.0%
Most: Ceuta
61.3%
Most: Valladolid
32.5%
Ceuta Over 13.2
46.5%
Valladolid Over 13.2
26.5%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
72.6%
Over 7.5
59.8%
Over 8.5
46.6%
Over 9.5
34.2%
Most: Ceuta
53.6%
Most: Valladolid
33.3%
Ceuta Over 4.2
48.4%
Valladolid Over 4.2
33.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
89.6%
Over 3.5
77.1%
Over 4.5
60.5%
Most: Ceuta
37.5%
Most: Valladolid
44.7%
Ceuta Over 1.8
71.9%
Valladolid Over 1.8
75.8%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Ceuta clean sheet
31.4%
Valladolid clean sheet
27.9%
Ceuta win to nil
22.0%
Valladolid win to nil
18.5%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
38.5%
draw
28.7%
away
32.8%
double_chance
1X
67.2%
12
71.3%
X2
61.5%
dnb
home
54.0%
away
46.0%
btts
yes
50.0%
no
50.0%
clean_sheet
home
31.5%
away
27.9%
win_to_nil
home
22.0%
away
18.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1
21.1%
home_by_2
11.4%
home_by_3plus
6.0%
away_by_1
19.1%
away_by_2
9.4%
away_by_3plus
4.4%
correct_score
0-0
9.4%
0-1
9.5%
0-2
5.9%
0-3
2.3%
0-4
0.7%
0-5
0.2%
1-0
10.5%
1-1
13.6%
1-2
7.5%
1-3
2.9%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
7.1%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
4.8%
2-3
1.8%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
2.0%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.0%
4-1
1.1%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.3%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
90.6%
under_0.5
9.4%
over_1.5
70.5%
under_1.5
29.5%
over_2.5
43.9%
under_2.5
56.1%
over_3.5
22.8%
under_3.5
77.2%
over_4.5
10.0%
under_4.5
90.0%
over_5.5
3.8%
under_5.5
96.2%
odd_even
odd
48.3%
even
51.7%
team_home
over_0.5
72.1%
under_0.5
27.9%
over_1.5
36.4%
under_1.5
63.6%
over_2.5
13.7%
under_2.5
86.3%
team_away
over_0.5
68.6%
under_0.5
31.5%
over_1.5
32.2%
under_1.5
67.8%
over_2.5
11.1%
under_2.5
88.9%
most
home
38.5%
draw
28.7%
away
32.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
6.0%
away_+2.5
94.0%
home_-1.5
17.4%
away_+1.5
82.6%
home_-0.5
38.5%
away_+0.5
61.5%
home_+0.5
67.2%
away_-0.5
32.8%
home_+1.5
86.3%
away_-1.5
13.7%
home_+2.5
95.7%
away_-2.5
4.4%
total_exact
exact_0
9.4%
exact_1
20.1%
exact_2
26.6%
exact_3
21.1%
exact_4
12.8%
exact_5
6.2%
exact_6
2.5%
exact_7plus
1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
33.1%
draw
40.4%
away
26.5%
total
over_0.5
72.1%
under_0.5
27.9%
over_1.5
36.5%
under_1.5
63.5%
over_2.5
13.8%
under_2.5
86.2%
btts
yes
22.1%
no
77.9%
total_exact
exact_0
27.9%
exact_1
35.6%
exact_2
22.8%
exact_3
9.7%
exact_4plus
4.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
29.8%
draw
42.3%
away
27.9%
total
over_0.5
69.4%
under_0.5
30.6%
over_1.5
33.2%
under_1.5
66.9%
over_2.5
11.7%
under_2.5
88.3%
btts
yes
19.9%
no
80.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
26.0%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
1.7%
D/H
12.0%
D/D
17.1%
D/A
11.3%
A/H
1.6%
A/D
4.7%
A/A
20.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
68.5%
under_7.5
31.5%
over_8.5
56.2%
under_8.5
43.8%
over_9.5
43.7%
under_9.5
56.3%
over_10.5
32.3%
under_10.5
67.7%
over_11.5
22.7%
under_11.5
77.3%
over_12.5
15.1%
under_12.5
84.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
69.4%
under_3.5
30.6%
over_4.5
53.2%
under_4.5
46.8%
over_5.5
37.7%
under_5.5
62.3%
team_away
over_3.5
58.9%
under_3.5
41.1%
over_4.5
41.5%
under_4.5
58.5%
over_5.5
26.8%
under_5.5
73.2%
most
home
52.1%
draw
11.2%
away
36.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.2%
away_+3.5
78.8%
home_-1.5
40.7%
away_+1.5
59.3%
home_-0.5
52.1%
away_+0.5
47.9%
home_+0.5
63.3%
away_-0.5
36.7%
home_+1.5
73.4%
away_-1.5
26.6%
home_+3.5
88.4%
away_-3.5
11.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
61.2%
under_22.5
38.8%
over_24.5
48.3%
under_24.5
51.7%
over_26.5
35.9%
under_26.5
64.1%
over_28.5
25.0%
under_28.5
75.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.2%
under_10.5
27.8%
over_12.5
55.2%
under_12.5
44.8%
over_14.5
38.3%
under_14.5
61.7%
team_away
over_10.5
52.9%
under_10.5
47.1%
over_12.5
34.4%
under_12.5
65.6%
over_14.5
19.9%
under_14.5
80.1%
most
home
61.3%
draw
6.1%
away
32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.6%
away_+4.5
64.5%
home_-2.5
48.3%
away_+2.5
51.7%
home_-0.5
61.3%
away_+0.5
38.7%
home_+0.5
67.5%
away_-0.5
32.5%
home_+2.5
78.3%
away_-2.5
21.7%
home_+4.5
86.7%
away_-4.5
13.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
72.6%
under_6.5
27.4%
over_7.5
59.8%
under_7.5
40.2%
over_8.5
46.6%
under_8.5
53.4%
over_9.5
34.2%
under_9.5
65.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
66.5%
under_3.5
33.6%
over_4.5
48.4%
under_4.5
51.6%
over_5.5
32.0%
under_5.5
68.0%
team_away
over_3.5
52.5%
under_3.5
47.5%
over_4.5
33.8%
under_4.5
66.2%
over_5.5
19.5%
under_5.5
80.6%
most
home
53.6%
draw
13.1%
away
33.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.0%
away_+2.5
72.0%
home_-0.5
53.6%
away_+0.5
46.4%
home_+0.5
66.7%
away_-0.5
33.3%
home_+2.5
86.6%
away_-2.5
13.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
89.6%
under_2.5
10.4%
over_3.5
77.1%
under_3.5
22.9%
over_4.5
60.5%
under_4.5
39.5%
over_5.5
43.1%
under_5.5
56.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
71.9%
under_1.5
28.2%
over_2.5
46.4%
under_2.5
53.7%
team_away
over_1.5
75.8%
under_1.5
24.2%
over_2.5
51.6%
under_2.5
48.4%
most
home
37.5%
draw
17.8%
away
44.7%
handicap
home_-1.5
22.2%
away_+1.5
77.8%
home_-0.5
37.5%
away_+0.5
62.5%
home_+0.5
55.3%
away_-0.5
44.7%
home_+1.5
72.0%
away_-1.5
28.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
89.6%
under_20.5
10.4%
over_22.5
81.6%
under_22.5
18.4%
over_24.5
71.1%
under_24.5
28.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
84.0%
under_9.5
16.0%
over_11.5
68.6%
under_11.5
31.4%
over_13.5
50.4%
under_13.5
49.6%
team_away
over_9.5
86.6%
under_9.5
13.5%
over_11.5
72.6%
under_11.5
27.4%
over_13.5
55.1%
under_13.5
44.9%
most
home
43.5%
draw
6.5%
away
50.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.6%
away_+3.5
74.4%
home_-0.5
43.5%
away_+0.5
56.5%
home_+2.5
62.8%
away_-2.5
37.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
18.0%
no
82.0%
home
yes
7.3%
no
92.7%
away
yes
11.6%
no
88.4%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Segunda División
Valladolid