AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Serie A
CagliariCagliariWWWDL
Full time0-2Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1014:00UK
BolognaBolognaDLDWL

Cagliari 0-2 Bologna cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.6%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.4%

Result

Cagliari0-2Bologna
4 yellow cardsCagliari 3, Bologna 1
0 red cardsCagliari 0, Bologna 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 53.6% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 86.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards46.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Kevin Bonacina

Recorded match referee.

Kevin Bonacina in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 14 3
Goals 3.29 Not available
Yellow cards 2.79 Not available
Red cards 0.14 Not available
Corners 8.4 Not available
Fouls 26.1 Not available
Both teams scored 50% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 64% Not available
Home wins 50% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Cagliari vs Bologna 0-2 2 No 4 0 7 38
10 Oct 2026 Inter vs Parma 3-0 3 No 0 0 4 22
13 Sep 2026 Napoli vs Bologna 1-0 1 No 1 0 10 25
23 May 2026 Bologna vs Inter 3-3 6 Yes 2 0 5 29
3 May 2026 Inter vs Parma 2-0 2 No 1 0 11 16
27 Apr 2026 Lazio vs Udinese 3-3 6 Yes 4 0 9 31
11 Apr 2026 Torino vs Verona 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 9 30
15 Mar 2026 Sassuolo vs Bologna 0-1 1 No 3 0 11 27
31 Jan 2026 Cagliari vs Verona 4-0 4 No 2 1 9 23
8 Jan 2026 Cremonese vs Cagliari 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 6 28

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cagliari vs Bologna. The model leans toward Cagliari for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 67.3% 32.8%
3.5 cards 46.4% 53.6%
4.5 cards 28.2% 71.8%
5.5 cards 15.3% 84.7%

Who picks up more cards

Cagliari
40.8%
Level
21.7%
Bologna
37.5%

Team cards lines

Cagliari

Over 1.5
52.9%
Over 2.5
27.2%

Bologna

Over 1.5
50.4%
Over 2.5
25.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Cagliari's; Bologna gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Cagliari line Cagliari Bologna
-1.5 22.1% 77.9%
-0.5 40.8% 59.2%
+0.5 62.5% 37.5%
+1.5 80.4% 19.6%

Red card

Any red card13.5%
Cagliari red card4.7%
Bologna red card9.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 79.1% 20.9%
22.5 fouls 68.2% 31.8%
24.5 fouls 55.9% 44.1%
CagliariCagliari

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Cagliari at home and Bologna away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BolognaBologna
Statistic
Cagliari
Bologna
Yellow cards per game
1.0
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.2
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.8
·

Matches with card data
3
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 46.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.3% for over 2.5 to 15.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.4%. Between the two sides, Cagliari are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Cagliari over 1.5 cards sits at 52.9% and Bologna at 50.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.5% (Cagliari 4.7%, Bologna 9.3%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

46.4%Over 3.5 cards
13.5%Any red card
40.8%Most cards: Cagliari
52.9%Cagliari over 1.5 cards
50.4%Bologna over 1.5 cards
68.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 46.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.5%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianCagliari are the pick to collect more cards at 40.8%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 46.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CagliariCagliari

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BolognaBologna
Statistic
Cagliari
Bologna
fouls per game
10.2
14.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.4% for Cagliari vs Bologna.
Will there be a red card in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Before kickoff, the model rated Cagliari to pick up more cards at 40.8%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Serie ACagliari fixtures and statsBologna fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.