Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Inter74.8%
Win probability · fair 1.34
Top signals
Inter or drawVery likely91.8%Fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely80.5%Fair 1.24
Over 2.5 goalsClose call57.7%Fair 1.73
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Inter at 75% against Parma, Serie A, 10 October 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) For shots markets, Lautaro Martínez is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. 3) The run in: Inter arrive W4 D2 L0, Parma W2 D1 L3. The recent series reads 4 wins for Inter, 1 draws and 0 for Parma over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 9.5 corners46.7%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners37.7%@ 2.65
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners56.4%@ 1.77
Not both teams to score52.6%@ 1.90
Random finds
2-0 correct score12.6%@ 7.91
1-0 correct score10.8%@ 9.26
3-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.52
Model vs market
Inter
74.8%
Draw
17.0%
Parma
8.2%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely80.5%Fair 1.24
Over 2.5Close call57.7%Fair 1.73
BTTS · YesClose call47.4%Fair 2.11
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.4%Fair 1.77
Over 9.5 cornersClose call46.7%Fair 2.14
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely37.7%Fair 2.65
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot29.7%Fair 3.37
Most cornersInter64.6%Parma26.1%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely65.0%Fair 1.54
Over 24.5 shotsClose call53.1%Fair 1.88
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely41.2%Fair 2.43
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.2%Fair 3.31
Recent shot volume
Inter21.2 taken11.3 faced
Parma9.5 taken16.3 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Inter (5 games)
9.2 / 14.0
Parma (5 games)
3.4 / 4.6
Totals line guide
0.5·1.580.5%2.557.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.5%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
InterWWWWD
ParmaLLDLW
Last 5 meetings: Inter 4 · 1 draws · Parma 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Lautaro MartínezInter · key player
To score41.5%2.41
1+ on target71.0%1.41
2+ shots85.5%1.17
Shots/90 3.89SoT/90 1.41Goals/90 0.61
El Bilal TouréParma · key player
To score12.5%8.00
1+ on target33.0%3.03
2+ shots31.4%3.18
Shots/90 2.21SoT/90 0.78Goals/90 0.26
Francesco Pio EspositoInter · in form
To score20.1%4.98
1+ on target50.2%1.99
2+ shots52.3%1.91
Shots/90 3.44SoT/90 1.37Goals/90 0.44
Pontus AlmqvistParma · in form
To score2.3%43.48
1+ on target19.2%5.21
2+ shots14.4%6.94
Shots/90 1.69SoT/90 0.54Goals/90 0.06
Marcus ThuramInter · in form
To score33.5%2.99
1+ on target58.7%1.70
2+ shots67.5%1.48
Shots/90 3.08SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.54
Adrián BernabéParma · in form
To score7.8%12.82
1+ on target28.4%3.52
2+ shots40.6%2.46
Shots/90 1.71SoT/90 0.41Goals/90 0.1
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Inter win1.40
Draw5.43
Parma win9.65
Both teams to score2.11
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.73
Over 3.5 goals2.83
Inter most1.40
Parma most9.65
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.45
Over 8.5 corners1.71
Over 9.5 corners2.10
Over 10.5 corners2.66
Inter most1.54
Parma most3.83
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.52
Over 3.5 cards2.24
Over 4.5 cards3.75
Over 5.5 cards7.06
Inter most2.77
Parma most2.39
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.03
Over 9.5 SoT2.59
Inter most1.55
Parma most3.97
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.54
Over 24.5 shots1.88
Over 26.5 shots2.43
Over 28.5 shots3.31
Inter most1.39
Parma most4.36
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.51
Over 22.5 fouls1.90
Over 24.5 fouls2.54
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
65.0%
Over 24.5
53.1%
Over 26.5
41.2%
Over 28.5
30.2%
Most: Inter
72.2%
Most: Parma
22.9%
Inter Over 13.2
58.2%
Parma Over 13.2
22.4%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
71.5%
Over 7.5
60.5%
Over 8.5
49.3%
Over 9.5
38.7%
Most: Inter
64.4%
Most: Parma
25.2%
Inter Over 4.2
56.6%
Parma Over 4.2
27.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
65.7%
Over 3.5
44.6%
Over 4.5
26.6%
Most: Inter
36.1%
Most: Parma
41.9%
Inter Over 1.8
48.2%
Parma Over 1.8
52.5%
Inter: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Lautaro Martínez
3.89
1.41
0.61
71.0%
85.5%
41.5%
Francesco Pio Esposito
3.44
1.37
0.44
50.2%
52.3%
20.1%
Marcus Thuram
3.08
1.17
0.54
58.7%
67.5%
33.5%
Hakan Calhanoglu
2.41
0.8
0.38
46.4%
56.1%
25.7%
Federico Dimarco
2.16
0.75
0.2
44.8%
51.0%
14.6%
Parma: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
El Bilal Touré
2.21
0.78
0.26
33.0%
31.4%
12.5%
Pontus Almqvist
1.69
0.54
0.06
19.2%
14.4%
2.3%
Adrián Bernabé
1.71
0.41
0.1
28.4%
40.6%
7.8%
Giovanni Fabbian
1.69
0.4
0.18
14.4%
14.1%
6.7%
Vincent Sierro
1.2
0.35
0.19
27.7%
30.5%
16.1%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Inter clean sheet
46.2%
Parma clean sheet
10.5%
Inter win to nil
40.8%
Parma win to nil
5.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
71.2%
draw
18.4%
away
10.4%
double_chance
1X
89.6%
12
81.6%
X2
28.8%
dnb
home
87.3%
away
12.7%
btts
yes
47.4%
no
52.6%
clean_sheet
home
47.5%
away
10.5%
win_to_nil
home
42.1%
away
5.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1
23.3%
home_by_2
21.4%
home_by_3plus
26.6%
away_by_1
7.4%
away_by_2
2.3%
away_by_3plus
0.6%
correct_score
0-0
5.4%
0-1
3.3%
0-2
1.4%
0-3
0.3%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
1-0
10.8%
1-1
8.8%
1-2
3.1%
1-3
0.8%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
2-0
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-2
3.5%
2-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
3-0
9.5%
3-1
7.1%
3-2
2.6%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
4-0
5.4%
4-1
4.0%
4-2
1.5%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
2.4%
5-1
1.8%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
2.8%
likeliest_score
h
200.0%
a
0.0%
p
12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.6%
under_0.5
5.4%
over_1.5
80.5%
under_1.5
19.5%
over_2.5
57.7%
under_2.5
42.3%
over_3.5
35.3%
under_3.5
64.7%
over_4.5
18.5%
under_4.5
81.5%
over_5.5
8.4%
under_5.5
91.6%
odd_even
odd
49.0%
even
51.0%
team_home
over_0.5
89.5%
under_0.5
10.5%
over_1.5
65.9%
under_1.5
34.1%
over_2.5
39.3%
under_2.5
60.7%
team_away
over_0.5
52.5%
under_0.5
47.5%
over_1.5
17.2%
under_1.5
82.8%
over_2.5
4.0%
under_2.5
96.0%
most
home
71.2%
draw
18.4%
away
10.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
26.6%
away_+2.5
73.4%
home_-1.5
48.0%
away_+1.5
52.0%
home_-0.5
71.2%
away_+0.5
28.8%
home_+0.5
89.6%
away_-0.5
10.4%
home_+1.5
97.1%
away_-1.5
2.9%
home_+2.5
99.4%
away_-2.5
0.6%
total_exact
exact_0
5.4%
exact_1
14.1%
exact_2
22.8%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
16.8%
exact_5
10.1%
exact_6
5.1%
exact_7plus
3.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
44.7%
draw
42.3%
away
13.1%
total
over_0.5
66.1%
under_0.5
33.9%
over_1.5
29.4%
under_1.5
70.6%
over_2.5
9.6%
under_2.5
90.4%
btts
yes
14.0%
no
86.1%
total_exact
exact_0
33.9%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
19.8%
exact_3
7.1%
exact_4plus
2.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
64.2%
draw
25.1%
away
10.7%
total
over_0.5
86.2%
under_0.5
13.8%
over_1.5
58.9%
under_1.5
41.1%
over_2.5
31.8%
under_2.5
68.2%
btts
yes
28.5%
no
71.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
41.2%
H/D
2.8%
H/A
0.6%
D/H
27.1%
D/D
10.6%
D/A
4.5%
A/H
4.2%
A/D
3.6%
A/A
5.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
69.1%
under_7.5
30.9%
over_8.5
58.5%
under_8.5
41.5%
over_9.5
47.7%
under_9.5
52.3%
over_10.5
37.6%
under_10.5
62.4%
over_11.5
28.6%
under_11.5
71.4%
over_12.5
21.1%
under_12.5
78.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
75.5%
under_3.5
24.5%
over_4.5
62.7%
under_4.5
37.3%
over_5.5
49.7%
under_5.5
50.3%
team_away
over_3.5
48.4%
under_3.5
51.6%
over_4.5
32.9%
under_4.5
67.1%
over_5.5
21.0%
under_5.5
79.0%
most
home
64.9%
draw
9.0%
away
26.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
35.5%
away_+3.5
64.5%
home_-1.5
55.0%
away_+1.5
45.0%
home_-0.5
64.9%
away_+0.5
35.1%
home_+0.5
73.9%
away_-0.5
26.1%
home_+1.5
81.5%
away_-1.5
18.5%
home_+3.5
92.0%
away_-3.5
8.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
65.0%
under_22.5
35.0%
over_24.5
53.1%
under_24.5
46.9%
over_26.5
41.2%
under_26.5
58.8%
over_28.5
30.2%
under_28.5
69.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
79.5%
under_10.5
20.5%
over_12.5
65.8%
under_12.5
34.2%
over_14.5
50.6%
under_14.5
49.4%
team_away
over_10.5
46.1%
under_10.5
53.9%
over_12.5
29.2%
under_12.5
70.8%
over_14.5
16.8%
under_14.5
83.2%
most
home
72.2%
draw
4.9%
away
22.9%
handicap
home_-4.5
49.1%
away_+4.5
50.9%
home_-2.5
61.1%
away_+2.5
38.9%
home_-0.5
72.2%
away_+0.5
27.8%
home_+0.5
77.1%
away_-0.5
22.9%
home_+2.5
85.3%
away_-2.5
14.8%
home_+4.5
91.2%
away_-4.5
8.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
71.5%
under_6.5
28.5%
over_7.5
60.5%
under_7.5
39.5%
over_8.5
49.3%
under_8.5
50.7%
over_9.5
38.7%
under_9.5
61.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
71.0%
under_3.5
29.0%
over_4.5
56.6%
under_4.5
43.4%
over_5.5
42.8%
under_5.5
57.3%
team_away
over_3.5
43.4%
under_3.5
56.6%
over_4.5
27.8%
under_4.5
72.2%
over_5.5
16.5%
under_5.5
83.5%
most
home
64.4%
draw
10.4%
away
25.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
41.6%
away_+2.5
58.4%
home_-0.5
64.4%
away_+0.5
35.6%
home_+0.5
74.8%
away_-0.5
25.2%
home_+2.5
89.6%
away_-2.5
10.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
65.7%
under_2.5
34.3%
over_3.5
44.6%
under_3.5
55.4%
over_4.5
26.7%
under_4.5
73.4%
over_5.5
14.2%
under_5.5
85.8%
odd_even
odd
49.9%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
48.2%
under_1.5
51.8%
over_2.5
23.2%
under_2.5
76.8%
team_away
over_1.5
52.5%
under_1.5
47.5%
over_2.5
26.9%
under_2.5
73.1%
most
home
36.1%
draw
22.0%
away
41.9%
handicap
home_-1.5
18.4%
away_+1.5
81.6%
home_-0.5
36.1%
away_+0.5
63.9%
home_+0.5
58.1%
away_-0.5
41.9%
home_+1.5
77.3%
away_-1.5
22.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
66.3%
under_20.5
33.7%
over_22.5
52.8%
under_22.5
47.2%
over_24.5
39.4%
under_24.5
60.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
72.0%
under_9.5
28.0%
over_11.5
53.5%
under_11.5
46.5%
over_13.5
35.5%
under_13.5
64.5%
team_away
over_9.5
62.2%
under_9.5
37.8%
over_11.5
42.3%
under_11.5
57.7%
over_13.5
25.3%
under_13.5
74.7%
most
home
54.4%
draw
6.8%
away
38.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
34.1%
away_+3.5
65.9%
home_-0.5
54.4%
away_+0.5
45.6%
home_+2.5
73.7%
away_-2.5
26.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
12.9%
no
87.1%
home
yes
3.2%
no
96.8%
away
yes
10.0%
no
90.0%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Serie A
Inter
Parma