AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
Bristol RvsBristol RvsLLWLL
Full time1-2Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
SalfordSalfordDWWWW

Bristol Rovers 1-2 Salford cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined57.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined42.5%

Result

Bristol Rvs1-2Salford
7 yellow cardsBristol Rvs 4, Salford 3
0 red cardsBristol Rvs 0, Salford 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 57.5% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 83.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards57.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Dean Whitestone

Recorded match referee.

Dean Whitestone in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 274 4
Goals 2.41 Not available
Yellow cards 2.83 Not available
Red cards 0.08 Not available
Corners 10.0 Not available
Fouls 21.5 Not available
Both teams scored 51% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 45% Not available
Home wins 43% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Bristol Rvs vs Salford 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 10 29
26 Sep 2026 Cheltenham vs Chesterfield 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 13 15
12 Sep 2026 Rotherham vs Salford 3-3 6 Yes 6 1 7 29
29 Aug 2026 Oldham vs Swindon 3-0 3 No 3 0 18 18
3 Apr 2026 Sheffield United vs SwanseaChampionship 3-3 6 Yes 2 0 6 24
21 Mar 2026 Hull vs Sheffield WedsChampionship 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 8 19
14 Mar 2026 Leicester vs QPRChampionship 1-3 4 Yes 4 0 9 24
7 Mar 2026 Sheffield United vs West BromChampionship 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 12 19
25 Feb 2026 Millwall vs BirminghamChampionship 3-0 3 No 1 1 12 22
14 Feb 2026 Preston vs WatfordChampionship 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 16 14

Dean Whitestone referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bristol Rvs vs Salford. It tips Salford for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 76.8% 23.2%
3.5 cards 57.5% 42.5%
4.5 cards 38.0% 62.0%
5.5 cards 22.2% 77.8%

Who picks up more cards

Bristol Rvs
33.7%
Level
20.4%
Salford
45.9%

Team cards lines

Bristol Rvs

Over 1.5
55.6%
Over 2.5
28.6%

Salford

Over 1.5
64.1%
Over 2.5
37.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Bristol Rvs's; Salford gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Bristol Rvs line Bristol Rvs Salford
-1.5 17.5% 82.5%
-0.5 33.7% 66.3%
+0.5 54.1% 45.9%
+1.5 73.1% 26.9%

Red card

Any red card16.3%
Bristol Rvs red card9.2%
Salford red card7.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 74.4% 25.6%
22.5 fouls 60.3% 39.7%
24.5 fouls 45.2% 54.8%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Salford I Searle 2 1.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Bristol RvsBristol Rvs

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Bristol Rvs at home and Salford away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

SalfordSalford
Statistic
Bristol Rvs
Salford
Cards per game at this venue
2.0
2.6

Opponent cards per game at this venue
1.6
2.4

Yellow cards per game
2.2
1.7

Matches with card data
10
10
Red cards this season
2
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 57.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.8% for over 2.5 to 22.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.5%. Between the two sides, Salford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 20.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards sits at 55.6% and Salford at 64.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.3% (Bristol Rvs 9.2%, Salford 7.9%). Salford’s most frequent referee this season, I Searle, has averaged 1.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Bristol Rvs have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Salford 1.8.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

57.5%Over 3.5 cards
16.3%Any red card
45.9%Most cards: Salford
55.6%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards
64.1%Salford over 1.5 cards
60.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 57.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherI Searle, Salford’s most frequent referee this season, averages 1.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 16.3%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianSalford are the pick to collect more cards at 45.9%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Bristol RvsBristol Rvs

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SalfordSalford
Statistic
Bristol Rvs
Salford
cards per game
2.4
1.8

fouls per game
13.0
10.1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Bristol Rvs vs Salford?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.5% for Bristol Rvs vs Salford.
Will there be a red card in Bristol Rvs vs Salford?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bristol Rvs vs Salford?
Before kickoff, the model rated Salford to pick up more cards at 45.9%, with a level count at 20.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoBristol Rovers fixtures and statsSalford fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.