Premier League
Brighton vs 
Leeds Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 52.7% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 93.2% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.1% for over 2.5 to 18.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.7%. Between the two sides, Leeds are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 21.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.4% | 81.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.6%
26.8%
59.5%
32.4%
Card handicap
| Brighton line | Brighton | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.2% | 81.8% |
| -0.5 | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| +0.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| +1.5 | 75.6% | 24.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.1% | 71.9% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Brighton vs Leeds. It tips Leeds for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.7%Over 3.5 cards6.8%Any red card53.6%Brighton over 1.5 cards59.5%Leeds over 1.5 cards42.8%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Brighton over 1.5 cards sits at 53.6% and Leeds at 59.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.8% (Brighton 1.7%, Leeds 5.3%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Brighton vs Leeds?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.7% for Brighton vs Leeds.
Will there be a red card in Brighton vs Leeds?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 6.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Brighton vs Leeds?
Before kickoff, the model rated Leeds to pick up more cards at 43.5%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.