Premier League
Brighton vs 
Leeds Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 50.1% and it missed (30 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 59.2% and it landed (10 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 50.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 61.6% for over 22.5 to 28.3% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.0%. Between the two sides, Brighton are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.2%, with a level count at 5.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 50.0% | 50.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.3% | 71.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.4%
57.5%
42.4%
50.9%
34.3%
21.2%
Shot handicap
| Brighton line | Brighton | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| -2.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| -0.5 | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| +0.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 35.9% | 64.1% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Brighton.
In-depth analysis
50.0%Over 24.5 shots57.5%Brighton over 12.5 shots34.3%Leeds over 12.5 shots59.2%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Brighton over 12.5 shots sits at 57.5% and Leeds at 34.3%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Brighton vs Leeds?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 50.0% for Brighton vs Leeds.
Which team will have more shots in Brighton vs Leeds?
Before kickoff, the model rated Brighton to take more shots at 63.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.