AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
BlackburnBlackburnDWWLW
Tue, 3 Nov 20263/1119:45UK
StokeStokeWWLWD

Blackburn vs Stoke cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined53.4%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46.6%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards53.4%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Blackburn vs Stoke. It tips Stoke for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.7% 26.3%
3.5 cards 53.4% 46.6%
4.5 cards 33.9% 66.1%
5.5 cards 19.0% 81.0%

Who picks up more cards

Blackburn
38.5%
Level
21.2%
Stoke
40.3%

Team cards lines

Blackburn

Over 1.5
56.5%
Over 2.5
29.5%

Stoke

Over 1.5
57.8%
Over 2.5
30.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Blackburn's; Stoke gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Blackburn line Blackburn Stoke
-1.5 20.6% 79.4%
-0.5 38.5% 61.5%
+0.5 59.7% 40.3%
+1.5 78.1% 21.9%

Red card

Any red card12.9%
Blackburn red card2.4%
Stoke red card10.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 54.9% 45.1%
22.5 fouls 39.1% 60.9%
24.5 fouls 25.4% 74.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Stoke O Langford 2 2.5 0.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

BlackburnBlackburn

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Blackburn at home and Stoke away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

StokeStoke
Statistic
Blackburn
Stoke
Yellow cards per game
2.7
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
1.3
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.5
1.0

Matches with card data
6
6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 53.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.7% for over 2.5 to 19.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.4%. Between the two sides, Stoke are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.3%, with a level count at 21.2%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Blackburn over 1.5 cards sits at 56.5% and Stoke at 57.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.9% (Blackburn 2.4%, Stoke 10.7%). Stoke’s most frequent referee this season, O Langford, has averaged 2.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

53.4%Over 3.5 cards
12.9%Any red card
40.3%Most cards: Stoke
56.5%Blackburn over 1.5 cards
57.8%Stoke over 1.5 cards
39.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 53.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherO Langford, Stoke’s most frequent referee this season, averages 2.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianStoke are the pick to collect more cards at 40.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
BlackburnBlackburn

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

StokeStoke
Statistic
Blackburn
Stoke
fouls per game
10.7
13.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Blackburn vs Stoke?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.4% for Blackburn vs Stoke.
Will there be a red card in Blackburn vs Stoke?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Blackburn vs Stoke?
The model rates Stoke to pick up more cards at 40.3%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.