Pro League
Beveren vs 
Lommel SK Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 43.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 65.6% for over 2.5 to 13.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.9%. Between the two sides, Lommel SK are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.4%, with a level count at 22.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 13.1% | 86.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.4%
22.6%
52.2%
26.0%
Card handicap
| Beveren line | Beveren | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.1% | 81.9% |
| -0.5 | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| +0.5 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| +1.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.2% | 73.8% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Beveren cards per game9.0Beveren fouls per game1.0Lommel SK cards per game7.4Lommel SK fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Beveren vs Lommel SK. It tips Lommel SK for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
43.9%Over 3.5 cards7.2%Any red card48.4%Beveren over 1.5 cards52.2%Lommel SK over 1.5 cards39.1%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Beveren over 1.5 cards sits at 48.4% and Lommel SK at 52.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.2% (Beveren 5.0%, Lommel SK 2.4%). This season Beveren have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Lommel SK 1.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Beveren vs Lommel SK?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 43.9% for Beveren vs Lommel SK.
Will there be a red card in Beveren vs Lommel SK?
The model rates a red card for either side at 7.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Beveren vs Lommel SK?
The model rates Lommel SK to pick up more cards at 41.4%, with a level count at 22.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
