AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
BarnetBarnetDDWWW
Full time1-3Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
SwindonSwindonLLDLL

Barnet 1-3 Swindon cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.9%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.1%

Result

Barnet1-3Swindon
1 yellow cardsBarnet 0, Swindon 1
0 red cardsBarnet 0, Swindon 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 56.9% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 77.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards43.1%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Ben Atkinson

Recorded match referee.

Ben Atkinson in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 32 4
Goals 3.16 Not available
Yellow cards 4.28 Not available
Red cards 0.28 Not available
Corners 10.8 Not available
Fouls 22.3 Not available
Both teams scored 53% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 59% Not available
Home wins 47% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Barnet vs Swindon 1-3 4 Yes 1 0 14 13
17 Oct 2026 Colchester vs Exeter 0-0 0 No 4 0 7 27
10 Oct 2026 Crawley Town vs Chesterfield 2-2 4 Yes 7 0 8 22
5 Sep 2026 Salford vs Port Vale 1-0 1 No 3 0 12 29
27 Jan 2026 Colchester vs Grimsby 0-1 1 No 4 1 13 27
26 Dec 2025 Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon 1-0 1 No 3 0 13 18
22 Nov 2025 Gillingham vs Barnet 1-1 2 Yes 7 0 9 27
8 Nov 2025 Newport County vs Walsall 2-4 6 Yes 6 0 9 24
18 Oct 2025 Shrewsbury vs Crawley Town 1-0 1 No 6 1 12 29
20 Sep 2025 Barnet vs Grimsby 3-0 3 No 2 0 13 15

Ben Atkinson referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Barnet vs Swindon. The model leans toward Swindon for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 65.1% 34.9%
3.5 cards 43.1% 56.9%
4.5 cards 24.7% 75.3%
5.5 cards 12.4% 87.6%

Who picks up more cards

Barnet
25.5%
Level
21.6%
Swindon
52.9%

Team cards lines

Barnet

Over 1.5
38.9%
Over 2.5
15.3%

Swindon

Over 1.5
59.7%
Over 2.5
32.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Barnet's; Swindon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Barnet line Barnet Swindon
-1.5 10.9% 89.1%
-0.5 25.5% 74.5%
+0.5 47.1% 52.9%
+1.5 69.0% 31.0%

Red card

Any red card22.1%
Barnet red card6.7%
Swindon red card16.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 61.1% 38.9%
22.5 fouls 45.2% 54.8%
24.5 fouls 30.6% 69.4%
BarnetBarnet

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Barnet at home and Swindon away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

SwindonSwindon
Statistic
Barnet
Swindon
Cards per game at this venue
1.5
2.2

Opponent cards per game at this venue
3.8
0.2

Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.6

Matches with card data
8
10
Red cards this season
1
2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 43.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 65.1% for over 2.5 to 12.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.1%. Between the two sides, Swindon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.9%, with a level count at 21.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Barnet over 1.5 cards sits at 38.9% and Swindon at 59.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.1% (Barnet 6.7%, Swindon 16.5%). This season Barnet have averaged 1.9 cards a game and Swindon 1.8.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

43.1%Over 3.5 cards
22.1%Any red card
52.9%Most cards: Swindon
38.9%Barnet over 1.5 cards
59.7%Swindon over 1.5 cards
45.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 43.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 22.1%, a live risk in this one, and a red changes every card line at once.
The DisciplinarianSwindon are the pick to collect more cards at 52.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 43.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
BarnetBarnet

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

SwindonSwindon
Statistic
Barnet
Swindon
cards per game
1.9
1.8

fouls per game
13.8
10.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Barnet vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 43.1% for Barnet vs Swindon.
Will there be a red card in Barnet vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Barnet vs Swindon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Swindon to pick up more cards at 52.9%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoBarnet fixtures and statsSwindon fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.