Augsburg vs Bayern Munich prediction & probabilities (2026-10-09)

Bundesliga

Augsburg vs Bayern Munich Both Teams to Score

2026-10-09 · 01:00
Both Teams to Score67.1%Both teams to score · Yes
Best predictionBoth teams to score · Yes · 67.1%A moderate lean, nothing emphatic. Calibrated, not a tip.
67%

model probability

ConvictionModerate

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Both teams to score · Yes at 67.1%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Augsburg have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Bayern Munich 2.6 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 72.3% for over 2.5 and 89.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 goals a game. Augsburg have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Bayern Munich in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Both Teams to Score

★ ModelYes67.1%

No32.9%

Over 2.5 · context72.3%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Augsburg scored

2.4

Augsburg conceded

1.6

Bayern Munich scored

2.6

Bayern Munich conceded

0.6

Each team to score

Augsburg to score73.1%

Augsburg 2+ goals37.9%

Bayern Munich to score91.3%

Bayern Munich 2+ goals70.0%

By half

Both score in 1st half27.4%

Both score in 2nd half37.8%

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

2.7%

0

8.1%

1

16.9%

2

20.7%

3

19.4%

4

28.3%

5+

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

66.1%Favoured: Bayern Munich
67.1%Both Teams to Score
72.3%Over 2.5 goals

On the goals side, the model sees 72.3% for three or more goals and 89.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Bayern Munich favoured at 66.1%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 67.1% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianProjects an open, higher-tempo game from the 72.3% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutBayern Munich are the model’s pick on the result at 66.1%, a lean on probability, never on price.

Match outlook

Augsburg16.9%

Draw16.9%

Bayern Munich66.1%

The model leans Bayern Munich to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

A

Anton KadeAugsburg · 2.66 shots/90
To score 21.2%

H

Harry KaneBayern Munich · 4.45 shots/90
To score 62.0%

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

AugsburgWLWWD
Bayern MunichWWWDW

Last 5 meetings: Augsburg 1 · 0 draws · Bayern Munich 4 · 4.0 goals/game.

Recent trends

AugsburgBTTS 3/5Over 2.5 5/5
Bayern MunichBTTS 3/5Over 2.5 3/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 67.1% for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich.

Will Augsburg score against Bayern Munich?
The model rates Augsburg to score at 73.1% and Bayern Munich to score at 91.3%.

How often have Augsburg seen both teams score recently?
Augsburg have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Bayern Munich in 3 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0232Calibration error
55,473Matches graded

In 5,771 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 58.9% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 58.1%✓ 57.7%✗ 52.4%✗ 50.5%✗ 50.8%✗ 51.4%✗ 50.4%✓ 57.1%✓ 53.6%✗ 50.2%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Betis vs Getafe2026-09-17No 58.1%Hit
Malaga vs Villarreal2026-09-17Yes 57.7%Hit
Ath Madrid vs Osasuna2026-09-16Yes 52.4%Miss
La Coruna vs Sevilla2026-09-16Yes 50.5%Miss
Barcelona vs Santander2026-09-16No 50.8%Miss

AI experts on Both Teams to Score

Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.

Expert Pick
btts_specialist v1.0 BTTS yes

See all experts & their track records →

More Bundesliga, Both Teams to Score

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Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.