AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
Ath BilbaoAth BilbaoWDDDL
Full time4-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1013:00UK21°C · Cloudy
GetafeGetafeDLWLD

Athletic Bilbao 4-0 Getafe cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined68.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined31.9%

Result

Ath Bilbao4-0Getafe
4 yellow cardsAth Bilbao 1, Getafe 3
1 red cardsAth Bilbao 0, Getafe 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 68.1% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 78.6% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards68.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ath Bilbao vs Getafe. It tips Getafe for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 83.8% 16.2%
3.5 cards 68.1% 31.9%
4.5 cards 50.1% 49.9%
5.5 cards 33.3% 66.7%

Who picks up more cards

Ath Bilbao
32.0%
Level
18.1%
Getafe
49.9%

Team cards lines

Ath Bilbao

Over 1.5
60.9%
Over 2.5
34.7%

Getafe

Over 1.5
72.3%
Over 2.5
47.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Ath Bilbao's; Getafe gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Ath Bilbao line Ath Bilbao Getafe
-1.5 17.5% 82.5%
-0.5 32.0% 68.0%
+0.5 50.1% 49.9%
+1.5 67.9% 32.1%

Red card

Any red card21.5%
Ath Bilbao red card12.1%
Getafe red card10.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 82.4% 17.6%
22.5 fouls 71.6% 28.4%
24.5 fouls 58.8% 41.2%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 68.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.8% for over 2.5 to 33.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.1%. Head to head on cards, Getafe are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.9%, with a level count at 18.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards sits at 60.9% and Getafe at 72.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 21.5% (Ath Bilbao 12.1%, Getafe 10.6%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

68.1%Over 3.5 cards
21.5%Any red card
49.9%Most cards: Getafe
60.9%Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards
72.3%Getafe over 1.5 cards
71.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 68.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 21.5%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianGetafe are the pick to collect more cards at 49.9%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 50.1%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Ath BilbaoAth Bilbao

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

GetafeGetafe
Statistic
Ath Bilbao
Getafe
fouls per game
10.6
·

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Ath Bilbao vs Getafe?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 68.1% for Ath Bilbao vs Getafe.
Will there be a red card in Ath Bilbao vs Getafe?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 21.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ath Bilbao vs Getafe?
Before kickoff, the model rated Getafe to pick up more cards at 49.9%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

La LigaAthletic Bilbao fixtures and statsGetafe fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.