Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Arsenal Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 50.3% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 92.1% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 49.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.7% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.7%. On the card count, Arsenal are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.3%, with a level count at 21.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.5% | 69.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.4% | 83.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.4%
22.4%
60.2%
33.1%
Card handicap
| Aston Villa line | Aston Villa | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| -0.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| +0.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| +1.5 | 72.9% | 27.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.3% | 69.7% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Aston Villa vs Arsenal. Slightly more cards are projected for Arsenal for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.7%Over 3.5 cards8.0%Any red card48.4%Aston Villa over 1.5 cards60.2%Arsenal over 1.5 cards45.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Aston Villa over 1.5 cards sits at 48.4% and Arsenal at 60.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.0% (Aston Villa 6.0%, Arsenal 2.1%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.7% for Aston Villa vs Arsenal.
Will there be a red card in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Before kickoff, the model rated Arsenal to pick up more cards at 47.3%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.