Lecce vs Roma prediction & probabilities (2026-08-31)

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Lecce vs Roma: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 31 Aug 2026

Serie A
Lecce

WLWWW

Full time0-4Mon, 31 Aug 202617:30UK32°C · Clearing
Roma

WWWWW

Model’s top convictions

83%

Draw or Roma

70%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lecce 0-4 Roma
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Roma at 56.5%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 56.3% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 70.2% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 77.3% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 55.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 60.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.6% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 59.7% and it landed (3 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 50.8% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 56.3% and it landed (22 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 50.9% and it landed (11 shots on target). We called No at 86.1% and it landed.

Match data Lecce Roma
Goals, 1st half 0 3
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 7 15
Shots, 1st half 2 8
Shots, 2nd half 5 7
Shots on target 3 8
Corners 2 1
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 9 8
Expected goals (xG) 1.20 4.14

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
RomaWin probability
56.5%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Roma82.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 1.5 goals70.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Under 2.5 goals56.3%Good chancePays @ 1.78

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Roma, that gap is the story." Few Serie A fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Roma carry a 57% win probability against Lecce on 31 August 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Roma at 66%. Caution noted. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 45%. For shots markets, Nikola Krstovic is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Lecce against W6 D0 L0 for Roma. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Lecce, 1 draws and 4 for Roma, averaging 1.8 goals a game. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 32 degrees of heat. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.11)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals43.7%@ 2.29
Lecce or draw43.5%@ 2.30
Over 9.5 corners40.2%@ 2.49
Medium risk

Not both teams to score55.2%@ 1.81
Over 8.5 corners49.9%@ 2.00
Random finds

0-1 correct score13.8%@ 7.25
1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.30
0-2 correct score11.6%@ 8.61

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lecce

17.2%+6.1%

Draw

26.3%+2.9%

Roma

56.5%-9.0%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.11)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes44.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.540.2%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.0%

Low chance

Most cornersLecce50.1%Roma39.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.555.8%

Good chance

Over 24.543.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.2%2.543.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.570.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LecceWLWWW
RomaWWWWW

Last 5 meetings: Lecce 0 · 1 draws · Roma 4 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-03-22Roma 1-0 Lecce
2026-01-06Lecce 0-2 Roma
2025-03-29Lecce 0-1 Roma
2024-12-07Roma 4-1 Lecce
2024-04-01Lecce 0-0 Roma

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LecceRoma
League position#3 of 20#1 of 20
Record W-D-L1-0-01-0-0
Current streakW1W1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Nikola KrstovicLecce · key player
To score27.2%

@ 3.68

1+ on target68.2%

@ 1.47

2+ shots88.7%

@ 1.13

Shots/90 4.01SoT/90 1.23Goals/90 0.34
Donyell MalenRoma · key player
To score54.0%

@ 1.85

1+ on target82.1%

@ 1.22

2+ shots90.0%

@ 1.11

Shots/90 4.2SoT/90 1.86Goals/90 0.84
Jesper KarlssonLecce · in form
To score7.4%

@ 13.51

1+ on target31.8%

@ 3.14

2+ shots18.0%

@ 5.56

Shots/90 1.79SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.18
Evan FergusonRoma · in form
To score17.2%

@ 5.81

1+ on target58.3%

@ 1.72

2+ shots48.3%

@ 2.07

Shots/90 3.01SoT/90 1.62Goals/90 0.35
Konan N’DriLecce · in form
To score5.2%

@ 19.23

1+ on target16.8%

@ 5.95

2+ shots16.9%

@ 5.92

Shots/90 3.32SoT/90 0.83Goals/90 0.24
Paulo DybalaRoma · in form
To score16.7%

@ 5.99

1+ on target55.9%

@ 1.79

2+ shots58.8%

@ 1.70

Shots/90 2.92SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.27

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Lecce win8.005.81
Draw4.003.81
Roma win1.481.77
Over 2.5 goals2.102.29
Under 2.5 goals1.731.78

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lecce win5.57
Draw3.86
Roma win1.78
Both teams to score2.23

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.29
Over 3.5 goals4.40
Lecce most5.57
Roma most1.78

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61
Over 8.5 corners1.96
Over 9.5 corners2.48
Over 10.5 corners3.26
Lecce most1.99
Roma most2.55

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.97
Over 4.5 cards3.13
Over 5.5 cards5.62
Lecce most2.67
Roma most2.42

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.59
Over 7.5 SoT1.97
Over 8.5 SoT2.52
Over 9.5 SoT3.37
Lecce most2.25
Roma most2.31

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.79
Over 24.5 shots2.29
Over 26.5 shots3.07
Over 28.5 shots4.36
Lecce most1.78
Roma most2.65

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.24
Over 22.5 fouls1.43
Over 24.5 fouls1.75
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 62.7% Over 7.5 50.9% Over 8.5 39.6% Over 9.5 29.7%
Most: Lecce 44.5% Most: Roma 43.3%
Lecce Over 4.2 36.6% Roma Over 4.2 35.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.3% Over 3.5 50.8% Over 4.5 31.9%
Most: Lecce 37.5% Most: Roma 41.3%
Lecce Over 1.8 53.6% Roma Over 1.8 56.4%

Lecce: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Nikola Krstovic 4.01 1.23 0.34 68.2% 88.7% 27.2%
Jesper Karlsson 1.79 0.89 0.18 31.8% 18.0% 7.4%
Konan N’Dri 3.32 0.83 0.24 16.8% 16.9% 5.2%
Walid Cheddira 2.23 0.8 0.27 41.0% 43.3% 16.3%
Lameck Banda 2.12 0.72 0.2 33.0% 33.0% 10.5%

Roma: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Donyell Malen 4.2 1.86 0.84 82.1% 90.0% 54.0%
Evan Ferguson 3.01 1.62 0.35 58.3% 48.3% 17.2%
Paulo Dybala 2.92 1.21 0.27 55.9% 58.8% 16.7%
Artem Dovbyk 2.35 1.06 0.51 50.6% 46.4% 28.8%
Stephan El Shaarawy 2.39 1.01 0.21 31.7% 22.8% 7.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lecce clean sheet 19.9%
Roma clean sheet 44.5%
Lecce win to nil 10.4%
Roma win to nil 35.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 17.9% draw 25.9% away 56.2%
double_chance
1X 43.8% 12 74.1% X2 82.1%
dnb
home 24.2% away 75.8%
btts
yes 44.8% no 55.2%
clean_sheet
home 19.9% away 44.8%
win_to_nil
home 10.4% away 35.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 12.3% home_by_2 4.3% home_by_3plus 1.3%
away_by_1 25.4% away_by_2 17.5% away_by_3plus 13.3%
correct_score
0-0 9.5% 0-1 13.8% 0-2 11.6%
0-3 6.3% 0-4 2.6% 0-5 0.8%
1-0 6.5% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 9.3%
1-3 5.0% 1-4 2.1% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 2.9% 2-1 4.6% 2-2 3.7%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 0.8% 3-1 1.3% 3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.2% 4-1 0.3% 4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.0% 5-1 0.0% 5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 0.0% a 100.0% p 13.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.5% under_0.5 9.5% over_1.5 70.2%
under_1.5 29.8% over_2.5 43.7% under_2.5 56.3%
over_3.5 22.7% under_3.5 77.3% over_4.5 10.0%
under_4.5 90.0% over_5.5 3.8% under_5.5 96.2%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 55.2% under_0.5 44.8% over_1.5 19.3%
under_1.5 80.7% over_2.5 4.9% under_2.5 95.1%
team_away
over_0.5 80.2% under_0.5 19.9% over_1.5 48.1%
under_1.5 51.9% over_2.5 22.2% under_2.5 77.8%
most
home 17.9% draw 25.9% away 56.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 1.3% away_+2.5 98.7% home_-1.5 5.6%
away_+1.5 94.4% home_-0.5 17.9% away_+0.5 82.1%
home_+0.5 43.8% away_-0.5 56.2% home_+1.5 69.2%
away_-1.5 30.8% home_+2.5 86.7% away_-2.5 13.3%
total_exact
exact_0 9.5% exact_1 20.3% exact_2 26.5%
exact_3 21.0% exact_4 12.7% exact_5 6.2%
exact_6 2.5% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 14.3% draw 46.8% away 38.9%
total
over_0.5 60.9% under_0.5 39.1% over_1.5 24.2%
under_1.5 75.8% over_2.5 7.0% under_2.5 93.0%
btts
yes 12.0% no 88.0%
total_exact
exact_0 39.1% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 17.3%
exact_3 5.4% exact_4plus 1.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 15.5% draw 36.5% away 47.9%
total
over_0.5 74.6% under_0.5 25.5% over_1.5 39.7%
under_1.5 60.3% over_2.5 15.9% under_2.5 84.1%
btts
yes 20.8% no 79.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 8.0% H/D 3.9% H/A 2.4%
D/H 7.3% D/D 17.1% D/A 22.4%
A/H 0.8% A/D 3.8% A/A 34.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.2% under_7.5 37.8% over_8.5 51.0%
under_8.5 49.0% over_9.5 40.3% under_9.5 59.7%
over_10.5 30.7% under_10.5 69.3% over_11.5 22.6%
under_11.5 77.4% over_12.5 16.1% under_12.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.8% under_3.5 37.2% over_4.5 48.0%
under_4.5 52.0% over_5.5 34.7% under_5.5 65.3%
team_away
over_3.5 55.0% under_3.5 45.0% over_4.5 39.7%
under_4.5 60.3% over_5.5 27.0% under_5.5 73.0%
most
home 50.3% draw 10.5% away 39.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.0% away_+3.5 78.0% home_-1.5 39.9%
away_+1.5 60.2% home_-0.5 50.3% away_+0.5 49.7%
home_+0.5 60.8% away_-0.5 39.3% home_+1.5 70.5%
away_-1.5 29.5% home_+3.5 85.4% away_-3.5 14.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 55.8% under_22.5 44.2% over_24.5 43.8%
under_24.5 56.3% over_26.5 32.6% under_26.5 67.4%
over_28.5 23.0% under_28.5 77.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 64.9% under_10.5 35.1% over_12.5 48.4%
under_12.5 51.6% over_14.5 33.1% under_14.5 66.9%
team_away
over_10.5 52.1% under_10.5 47.9% over_12.5 35.1%
under_12.5 64.9% over_14.5 21.6% under_14.5 78.4%
most
home 56.3% draw 6.0% away 37.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.2% away_+4.5 67.8% home_-2.5 43.9%
away_+2.5 56.1% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.7%
home_+0.5 62.3% away_-0.5 37.7% home_+2.5 73.4%
away_-2.5 26.6% home_+4.5 82.5% away_-4.5 17.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 62.7% under_6.5 37.3% over_7.5 50.9%
under_7.5 49.1% over_8.5 39.6% under_8.5 60.4%
over_9.5 29.7% under_9.5 70.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 52.3% under_3.5 47.7% over_4.5 36.6%
under_4.5 63.4% over_5.5 24.1% under_5.5 75.9%
team_away
over_3.5 51.5% under_3.5 48.5% over_4.5 35.8%
under_4.5 64.3% over_5.5 23.3% under_5.5 76.7%
most
home 44.5% draw 12.3% away 43.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 22.9% away_+2.5 77.1% home_-0.5 44.5%
away_+0.5 55.5% home_+0.5 56.7% away_-0.5 43.3%
home_+2.5 78.1% away_-2.5 21.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.3% under_2.5 28.7% over_3.5 50.8%
under_3.5 49.2% over_4.5 31.9% under_4.5 68.1%
over_5.5 17.8% under_5.5 82.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.6% under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 27.5%
under_2.5 72.5%
team_away
over_1.5 56.4% under_1.5 43.6% over_2.5 30.0%
under_2.5 70.0%
most
home 37.5% draw 21.2% away 41.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.9% away_+1.5 80.1% home_-0.5 37.5%
away_+0.5 62.5% home_+0.5 58.7% away_-0.5 41.3%
home_+1.5 77.3% away_-1.5 22.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 80.7% under_20.5 19.3% over_22.5 69.7%
under_22.5 30.3% over_24.5 57.1% under_24.5 42.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.6% under_9.5 24.4% over_11.5 57.7%
under_11.5 42.3% over_13.5 39.3% under_13.5 60.7%
team_away
over_9.5 79.9% under_9.5 20.2% over_11.5 63.3%
under_11.5 36.7% over_13.5 45.2% under_13.5 54.8%
most
home 42.6% draw 6.6% away 50.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-0.5 42.6%
away_+0.5 57.5% home_+2.5 62.1% away_-2.5 37.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.9% no 86.1%
home
yes 9.3% no 90.7%
away
yes 5.0% no 95.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lecce predictions · Roma predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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