Super League Greece
Aris vs 
Iraklis Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 43.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 54.5% for over 22.5 to 23.1% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.5%. On the shot count, Aris are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.6%, with a level count at 5.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.1% | 76.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.7%
54.9%
40.4%
42.5%
27.2%
16.0%
Shot handicap
| Aris line | Aris | Iraklis |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.5% | 56.6% |
| -2.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| -0.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| +0.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.0% | 64.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Aris.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
43.0%Over 24.5 shots54.9%Aris over 12.5 shots27.2%Iraklis over 12.5 shots58.0%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Aris over 12.5 shots sits at 54.9% and Iraklis at 27.2%.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Aris vs Iraklis?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 43.0% for Aris vs Iraklis.
Which team will have more shots in Aris vs Iraklis?
The model rates Aris to take more shots at 66.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
