Süper Lig
Alanyaspor vs 
Erzurumspor Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 53.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 65.3% for over 22.5 to 30.3% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. Between the two sides, Alanyaspor are the model’s pick to have more shots at 64.7%, with a level count at 5.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 30.3% | 69.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.9%
60.8%
45.0%
52.9%
35.3%
21.3%
Shot handicap
| Alanyaspor line | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| -2.5 | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| -0.5 | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| +0.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 35.0% | 65.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
11.2Alanyaspor shots per game14.6Alanyaspor shots faced per game9.2Erzurumspor shots per game14.8Erzurumspor shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Alanyaspor.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
53.3%Over 24.5 shots60.8%Alanyaspor over 12.5 shots35.3%Erzurumspor over 12.5 shots59.2%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Alanyaspor over 12.5 shots sits at 60.8% and Erzurumspor at 35.3%. This season Alanyaspor have averaged 11.2 shots a game and Erzurumspor 9.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 53.3% for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor.
Which team will have more shots in Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor?
The model rates Alanyaspor to take more shots at 64.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
