AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
West HamWest HamDDWWL
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1015:00UK
West BromWest BromLLWWD

West Ham vs West Brom cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.8%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.2%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards47.2%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for West Ham vs West Brom. The model leans toward West Brom for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 68.6% 31.4%
3.5 cards 47.2% 52.8%
4.5 cards 28.2% 71.8%
5.5 cards 14.8% 85.2%

Who picks up more cards

West Ham
34.9%
Level
22.0%
West Brom
43.1%

Team cards lines

West Ham

Over 1.5
49.7%
Over 2.5
23.5%

West Brom

Over 1.5
55.8%
Over 2.5
28.8%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is West Ham's; West Brom gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

West Ham line West Ham West Brom
-1.5 17.3% 82.7%
-0.5 34.9% 65.1%
+0.5 56.9% 43.1%
+1.5 76.6% 23.4%

Red card

Any red card18.6%
West Ham red card2.5%
West Brom red card16.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 56.9% 43.1%
22.5 fouls 41.1% 58.9%
24.5 fouls 27.0% 73.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
West Ham J Smith 2 3.5 3.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

West HamWest Ham

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means West Ham at home and West Brom away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

West BromWest Brom
Statistic
West Ham
West Brom
Yellow cards per game
2.0
1.9

First-half yellow cards per game
0.7
1.2

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
0.8

Matches with card data
3
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 47.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.6% for over 2.5 to 14.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.2%. Head to head on cards, West Brom are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 22.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, West Ham over 1.5 cards sits at 49.7% and West Brom at 55.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.6% (West Ham 2.5%, West Brom 16.5%). West Ham’s most frequent referee this season, J Smith, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

47.2%Over 3.5 cards
18.6%Any red card
43.1%Most cards: West Brom
49.7%West Ham over 1.5 cards
55.8%West Brom over 1.5 cards
41.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 47.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ Smith, West Ham’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 18.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianWest Brom are the pick to collect more cards at 43.1%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
West HamWest Ham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

West BromWest Brom
Statistic
West Ham
West Brom
fouls per game
10.6
9.8

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in West Ham vs West Brom?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 47.2% for West Ham vs West Brom.
Will there be a red card in West Ham vs West Brom?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in West Ham vs West Brom?
The model rates West Brom to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 22.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipWest Ham fixtures and statsWest Brom fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.