Shots
| Over 22.5 |
65.1% |
Over 24.5 |
52.7% |
Over 26.5 |
40.4% |
Over 28.5 |
29.2% |
| Most: Middlesbrough |
65.6% |
Most: Norwich |
28.8% |
| Middlesbrough Over 13.2 |
52.8% |
Norwich Over 13.2 |
26.6% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
70.8% |
Over 7.5 |
58.4% |
Over 8.5 |
45.8% |
Over 9.5 |
34.2% |
| Most: Middlesbrough |
54.9% |
Most: Norwich |
32.7% |
| Middlesbrough Over 4.2 |
48.5% |
Norwich Over 4.2 |
32.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
73.6% |
Over 3.5 |
53.3% |
Over 4.5 |
33.8% |
| Most: Middlesbrough |
25.2% |
Most: Norwich |
55.0% |
| Middlesbrough Over 1.8 |
45.2% |
Norwich Over 1.8 |
67.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Middlesbrough clean sheet |
31.5% |
| Norwich clean sheet |
19.5% |
| Middlesbrough win to nil |
24.7% |
| Norwich win to nil |
12.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
48.1% |
draw |
25.7% |
away |
26.2% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
73.8% |
12 |
74.3% |
X2 |
51.9% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
22.5% |
home_by_2 |
14.8% |
home_by_3plus |
10.8% |
| away_by_1 |
15.6% |
away_by_2 |
7.3% |
away_by_3plus |
3.3% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
6.8% |
0-1 |
6.5% |
0-2 |
4.1% |
| 0-3 |
1.6% |
0-4 |
0.4% |
0-5 |
0.1% |
| 1-0 |
9.5% |
1-1 |
12.2% |
1-2 |
6.7% |
| 1-3 |
2.6% |
1-4 |
0.7% |
1-5 |
0.2% |
| 2-0 |
8.3% |
2-1 |
9.5% |
2-2 |
5.5% |
| 2-3 |
2.1% |
2-4 |
0.6% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
4.5% |
3-1 |
5.2% |
3-2 |
3.0% |
| 3-3 |
1.1% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
1.8% |
4-1 |
2.1% |
4-2 |
1.2% |
| 4-3 |
0.5% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.6% |
5-1 |
0.7% |
5-2 |
0.4% |
| 5-3 |
0.2% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.2% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
93.3% |
under_0.5 |
6.8% |
over_1.5 |
77.2% |
| under_1.5 |
22.8% |
over_2.5 |
52.7% |
under_2.5 |
47.3% |
| over_3.5 |
30.5% |
under_3.5 |
69.5% |
over_4.5 |
15.0% |
| under_4.5 |
85.0% |
over_5.5 |
6.4% |
under_5.5 |
93.6% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
80.5% |
under_0.5 |
19.5% |
over_1.5 |
48.7% |
| under_1.5 |
51.3% |
over_2.5 |
22.6% |
under_2.5 |
77.4% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
68.3% |
under_0.5 |
31.7% |
over_1.5 |
31.9% |
| under_1.5 |
68.1% |
over_2.5 |
11.0% |
under_2.5 |
89.0% |
|
most
| home |
48.1% |
draw |
25.7% |
away |
26.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
10.8% |
away_+2.5 |
89.2% |
home_-1.5 |
25.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
74.4% |
home_-0.5 |
48.1% |
away_+0.5 |
51.9% |
| home_+0.5 |
73.8% |
away_-0.5 |
26.2% |
home_+1.5 |
89.4% |
| away_-1.5 |
10.6% |
home_+2.5 |
96.7% |
away_-2.5 |
3.3% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
6.8% |
exact_1 |
16.0% |
exact_2 |
24.5% |
| exact_3 |
22.2% |
exact_4 |
15.5% |
exact_5 |
8.6% |
| exact_6 |
4.0% |
exact_7plus |
2.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
39.3% |
draw |
40.2% |
away |
20.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
71.3% |
under_0.5 |
28.7% |
over_1.5 |
35.5% |
| under_1.5 |
64.5% |
over_2.5 |
13.1% |
under_2.5 |
86.9% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
28.7% |
exact_1 |
35.8% |
exact_2 |
22.4% |
| exact_3 |
9.3% |
exact_4plus |
3.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
37.6% |
draw |
36.4% |
away |
26.0% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
77.8% |
under_0.5 |
22.3% |
over_1.5 |
44.3% |
| under_1.5 |
55.7% |
over_2.5 |
19.2% |
under_2.5 |
80.8% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
31.7% |
H/D |
5.6% |
H/A |
2.0% |
| D/H |
15.1% |
D/D |
14.6% |
D/A |
10.5% |
| A/H |
2.2% |
A/D |
4.4% |
A/A |
13.9% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
81.9% |
under_7.5 |
18.1% |
over_8.5 |
72.3% |
| under_8.5 |
27.7% |
over_9.5 |
61.3% |
under_9.5 |
38.7% |
| over_10.5 |
49.8% |
under_10.5 |
50.2% |
over_11.5 |
38.7% |
| under_11.5 |
61.4% |
over_12.5 |
28.7% |
under_12.5 |
71.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
81.9% |
under_3.5 |
18.1% |
over_4.5 |
69.1% |
| under_4.5 |
30.9% |
over_5.5 |
54.7% |
under_5.5 |
45.3% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
64.6% |
under_3.5 |
35.4% |
over_4.5 |
47.6% |
| under_4.5 |
52.4% |
over_5.5 |
32.3% |
under_5.5 |
67.7% |
|
most
| home |
59.8% |
draw |
9.8% |
away |
30.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
29.6% |
away_+3.5 |
70.4% |
home_-1.5 |
49.4% |
| away_+1.5 |
50.6% |
home_-0.5 |
59.8% |
away_+0.5 |
40.2% |
| home_+0.5 |
69.6% |
away_-0.5 |
30.5% |
home_+1.5 |
78.1% |
| away_-1.5 |
21.9% |
home_+3.5 |
90.3% |
away_-3.5 |
9.7% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
65.1% |
under_22.5 |
34.9% |
over_24.5 |
52.7% |
| under_24.5 |
47.3% |
over_26.5 |
40.4% |
under_26.5 |
59.6% |
| over_28.5 |
29.2% |
under_28.5 |
70.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
76.5% |
under_10.5 |
23.5% |
over_12.5 |
61.0% |
| under_12.5 |
39.0% |
over_14.5 |
44.7% |
under_14.5 |
55.3% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
52.3% |
under_10.5 |
47.7% |
over_12.5 |
34.2% |
| under_12.5 |
65.8% |
over_14.5 |
20.1% |
under_14.5 |
79.9% |
|
most
| home |
65.6% |
draw |
5.7% |
away |
28.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
40.7% |
away_+4.5 |
59.3% |
home_-2.5 |
53.3% |
| away_+2.5 |
46.7% |
home_-0.5 |
65.6% |
away_+0.5 |
34.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
71.2% |
away_-0.5 |
28.8% |
home_+2.5 |
81.0% |
| away_-2.5 |
19.0% |
home_+4.5 |
88.4% |
away_-4.5 |
11.6% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
70.8% |
under_6.5 |
29.2% |
over_7.5 |
58.4% |
| under_7.5 |
41.6% |
over_8.5 |
45.8% |
under_8.5 |
54.2% |
| over_9.5 |
34.2% |
under_9.5 |
65.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
65.6% |
under_3.5 |
34.4% |
over_4.5 |
48.5% |
| under_4.5 |
51.5% |
over_5.5 |
33.0% |
under_5.5 |
67.0% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
50.2% |
under_3.5 |
49.8% |
over_4.5 |
32.5% |
| under_4.5 |
67.5% |
over_5.5 |
19.1% |
under_5.5 |
80.9% |
|
most
| home |
54.9% |
draw |
12.5% |
away |
32.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
30.1% |
away_+2.5 |
69.9% |
home_-0.5 |
54.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
45.1% |
home_+0.5 |
67.3% |
away_-0.5 |
32.7% |
| home_+2.5 |
86.4% |
away_-2.5 |
13.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
73.6% |
under_2.5 |
26.4% |
over_3.5 |
53.3% |
| under_3.5 |
46.7% |
over_4.5 |
33.8% |
under_4.5 |
66.2% |
| over_5.5 |
18.9% |
under_5.5 |
81.1% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
45.2% |
under_1.5 |
54.8% |
over_2.5 |
19.8% |
| under_2.5 |
80.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
67.0% |
under_1.5 |
33.0% |
over_2.5 |
40.5% |
| under_2.5 |
59.5% |
most
| home |
25.2% |
draw |
19.8% |
away |
55.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
11.4% |
away_+1.5 |
88.6% |
home_-0.5 |
25.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
74.9% |
home_+0.5 |
45.0% |
away_-0.5 |
55.0% |
| home_+1.5 |
65.7% |
away_-1.5 |
34.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
57.2% |
under_20.5 |
42.8% |
over_22.5 |
41.4% |
| under_22.5 |
58.6% |
over_24.5 |
27.3% |
under_24.5 |
72.7% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
52.6% |
under_9.5 |
47.4% |
over_11.5 |
30.4% |
| under_11.5 |
69.6% |
over_13.5 |
14.6% |
under_13.5 |
85.4% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
70.8% |
under_9.5 |
29.2% |
over_11.5 |
49.6% |
| under_11.5 |
50.4% |
over_13.5 |
29.6% |
under_13.5 |
70.4% |
|
most
| home |
32.7% |
draw |
7.6% |
away |
59.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
14.6% |
away_+3.5 |
85.4% |
home_-0.5 |
32.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
67.3% |
home_+2.5 |
56.2% |
away_-2.5 |
43.8% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Championship
Norwich