West Ham vs Wrexham prediction & probabilities (2026-09-11)

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West Ham vs Wrexham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Championship
West Ham

LDWWW

Fri, 11 Sep 202620:00UK
Wrexham

DLWDD

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Draw or Wrexham

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.17).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
WrexhamWin probability
43.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals74.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Draw or Wrexham70.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Over 8.5 corners66.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.51

Model read

▾

West Ham versus Wrexham on 11 September 2026 tilts towards Wrexham in our numbers (44%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Wrexham than the market (17%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • As a promoted side, West Ham carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for West Ham against W1 D4 L1 for Wrexham. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.17)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.5%@ 2.20
Wrexham win43.8%@ 2.28
Over 11.5 corners35.7%@ 2.80
Medium risk

West Ham or draw56.2%@ 1.78
Over 9.5 corners55.9%@ 1.79
Both teams to score53.4%@ 1.87
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.75
0-1 correct score10.0%@ 9.97
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.06

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

West Ham

29.1%-31.7%

Draw

27.1%+4.6%

Wrexham

43.8%+27.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.17)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.548.8%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes53.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.9%

Good chance

Over 10.545.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersWest Ham57.6%Wrexham32.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.1%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

West Ham15.3 taken12.7 faced
Wrexham11.8 taken9.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.4%2.548.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.574.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.17).

Form & head-to-head

West HamLDWWW
WrexhamDLWDD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

West HamWrexham
League position#3 of 24#14 of 24
Record W-D-L3-2-11-4-1
Current streakW3D2
Points per game1.831.17
Record, home vs away2-0-11-2-0
PPG, home vs away2.001.67
Goals scored per game2.331.17
Goals conceded per game1.500.83
Scored, home vs away2.671.33
Conceded, home vs away1.330.33
1st half goals per game1.170.50
2nd half goals per game1.170.67
Corners won per game6.55.0
Cards per game2.01.3
Fouls per game8.712.2
Red cards this season00
Shots per game15.311.8
Shots faced per game12.79.8
Shots on target per game5.33.8
Over 2.5 rate

83.3%33.3%

BTTS rate

83.3%66.7%

Clean sheets

16.7%33.3%

Rates this season:West HamWrexham

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 68%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
West Ham win1.563.44
Draw4.003.69
Wrexham win5.252.28
Over 2.5 goals1.672.05
Under 2.5 goals2.201.95

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

West Ham win3.44
Draw3.69
Wrexham win2.28
Both teams to score1.87

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.34
Over 2.5 goals2.05
Over 3.5 goals3.71
West Ham most3.44
Wrexham most2.28

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.73
Over 10.5 corners2.17
West Ham most1.73
Wrexham most3.11

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.48
Over 3.5 cards2.17
Over 4.5 cards3.67
Over 5.5 cards7.09
West Ham most2.84
Wrexham most2.35

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.87
Over 8.5 SoT2.46
Over 9.5 SoT3.40
West Ham most1.67
Wrexham most3.59

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.62
Over 24.5 shots2.04
Over 26.5 shots2.71
Over 28.5 shots3.84
West Ham most1.52
Wrexham most3.51

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.92
Over 22.5 fouls2.76
Over 24.5 fouls4.35
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 61.7% Over 24.5 49.1% Over 26.5 36.8% Over 28.5 26.1%
Most: West Ham 65.8% Most: Wrexham 28.5%
West Ham Over 13.2 50.4% Wrexham Over 13.2 24.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.4% Over 7.5 53.4% Over 8.5 40.7% Over 9.5 29.4%
Most: West Ham 59.9% Most: Wrexham 27.8%
West Ham Over 4.2 48.3% Wrexham Over 4.2 25.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 67.7% Over 3.5 46.1% Over 4.5 27.3%
Most: West Ham 35.2% Most: Wrexham 42.5%
West Ham Over 1.8 49.3% Wrexham Over 1.8 54.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

West Ham clean sheet 22.9%
Wrexham clean sheet 31.4%
West Ham win to nil 15.1%
Wrexham win to nil 23.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 29.1% draw 27.1% away 43.8%
double_chance
1X 56.2% 12 72.9% X2 70.9%
dnb
home 39.9% away 60.1%
btts
yes 53.4% no 46.6%
clean_sheet
home 23.0% away 31.5%
win_to_nil
home 15.1% away 23.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.2% home_by_2 8.2% home_by_3plus 3.7%
away_by_1 22.0% away_by_2 13.3% away_by_3plus 8.5%
correct_score
0-0 7.9% 0-1 10.0% 0-2 7.8%
0-3 3.9% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.7% 1-1 12.9% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 4.4% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 4.8% 2-1 7.1% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.6% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 2.7% 3-2 2.0%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.8% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.2% under_0.5 7.9% over_1.5 74.4%
under_1.5 25.6% over_2.5 48.8% under_2.5 51.2%
over_3.5 27.0% under_3.5 73.0% over_4.5 12.6%
under_4.5 87.4% over_5.5 5.1% under_5.5 94.9%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 68.5% under_0.5 31.5% over_1.5 32.1%
under_1.5 67.9% over_2.5 11.1% under_2.5 88.9%
team_away
over_0.5 77.0% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.3%
under_1.5 56.7% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
most
home 29.1% draw 27.1% away 43.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.7% away_+2.5 96.3% home_-1.5 11.9%
away_+1.5 88.1% home_-0.5 29.1% away_+0.5 70.9%
home_+0.5 56.2% away_-0.5 43.8% home_+1.5 78.2%
away_-1.5 21.8% home_+2.5 91.5% away_-2.5 8.5%
total_exact
exact_0 7.9% exact_1 17.8% exact_2 25.6%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.3% exact_5 7.5%
exact_6 3.3% exact_7plus 1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.6% draw 33.5% away 24.9%
total
over_0.5 81.6% under_0.5 18.4% over_1.5 50.5%
under_1.5 49.5% over_2.5 24.2% under_2.5 75.9%
btts
yes 31.7% no 68.3%
total_exact
exact_0 18.4% exact_1 31.1% exact_2 26.4%
exact_3 14.9% exact_4plus 9.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.8% draw 33.9% away 23.3%
total
over_0.5 80.8% under_0.5 19.2% over_1.5 49.1%
under_1.5 50.9% over_2.5 22.9% under_2.5 77.1%
btts
yes 30.2% no 69.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 34.8% H/D 5.0% H/A 1.7%
D/H 14.3% D/D 11.4% D/A 7.8%
A/H 3.3% A/D 5.4% A/A 16.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.5% under_7.5 20.5% over_8.5 69.3%
under_8.5 30.7% over_9.5 57.8% under_9.5 42.2%
over_10.5 46.1% under_10.5 53.9% over_11.5 35.1%
under_11.5 64.9% over_12.5 25.5% under_12.5 74.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.5% under_3.5 20.5% over_4.5 65.7%
under_4.5 34.3% over_5.5 50.9% under_5.5 49.1%
team_away
over_3.5 63.9% under_3.5 36.1% over_4.5 46.8%
under_4.5 53.2% over_5.5 31.5% under_5.5 68.5%
most
home 57.7% draw 10.1% away 32.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.3% away_+3.5 72.7% home_-1.5 47.1%
away_+1.5 52.9% home_-0.5 57.7% away_+0.5 42.3%
home_+0.5 67.9% away_-0.5 32.2% home_+1.5 76.8%
away_-1.5 23.2% home_+3.5 89.7% away_-3.5 10.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.7% under_22.5 38.3% over_24.5 49.1%
under_24.5 50.9% over_26.5 36.9% under_26.5 63.1%
over_28.5 26.1% under_28.5 73.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.7% under_10.5 25.3% over_12.5 58.7%
under_12.5 41.3% over_14.5 42.3% under_14.5 57.7%
team_away
over_10.5 49.5% under_10.5 50.5% over_12.5 31.6%
under_12.5 68.4% over_14.5 18.1% under_14.5 81.9%
most
home 65.8% draw 5.7% away 28.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.6% away_+4.5 59.4% home_-2.5 53.3%
away_+2.5 46.7% home_-0.5 65.8% away_+0.5 34.2%
home_+0.5 71.5% away_-0.5 28.5% home_+2.5 81.3%
away_-2.5 18.7% home_+4.5 88.7% away_-4.5 11.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.4% under_6.5 33.6% over_7.5 53.4%
under_7.5 46.6% over_8.5 40.7% under_8.5 59.3%
over_9.5 29.4% under_9.5 70.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.5% under_3.5 34.5% over_4.5 48.3%
under_4.5 51.7% over_5.5 32.9% under_5.5 67.2%
team_away
over_3.5 42.4% under_3.5 57.6% over_4.5 25.5%
under_4.5 74.5% over_5.5 13.8% under_5.5 86.2%
most
home 59.9% draw 12.3% away 27.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.9% away_+2.5 66.1% home_-0.5 59.9%
away_+0.5 40.1% home_+0.5 72.2% away_-0.5 27.8%
home_+2.5 89.6% away_-2.5 10.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 67.7% under_2.5 32.3% over_3.5 46.1%
under_3.5 53.9% over_4.5 27.3% under_4.5 72.7%
over_5.5 14.1% under_5.5 85.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 49.3% under_1.5 50.7% over_2.5 23.1%
under_2.5 76.9%
team_away
over_1.5 54.7% under_1.5 45.3% over_2.5 27.9%
under_2.5 72.1%
most
home 35.2% draw 22.2% away 42.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.5% away_+1.5 82.5% home_-0.5 35.2%
away_+0.5 64.8% home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.6%
home_+1.5 77.1% away_-1.5 22.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 52.0% under_20.5 48.0% over_22.5 36.3%
under_22.5 63.7% over_24.5 23.0% under_24.5 77.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 49.7% under_9.5 50.3% over_11.5 27.9%
under_11.5 72.2% over_13.5 12.9% under_13.5 87.1%
team_away
over_9.5 67.0% under_9.5 33.0% over_11.5 45.1%
under_11.5 54.9% over_13.5 25.7% under_13.5 74.3%
most
home 33.6% draw 7.8% away 58.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.0% away_+3.5 85.0% home_-0.5 33.6%
away_+0.5 66.4% home_+2.5 57.7% away_-2.5 42.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 2.2% no 97.8%
home
yes 1.0% no 99.0%
away
yes 1.3% no 98.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: West Ham predictions · Wrexham predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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