AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Championship
WatfordWatfordLLWLL
Full time0-4Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:00UK
BurnleyBurnleyDLDLD

Watford 0-4 Burnley cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined62.6%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined37.4%

Result

Watford0-4Burnley
0 yellow cardsWatford 0, Burnley 0
0 red cardsWatford 0, Burnley 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 62.6% and it missed (0 in the match). We called No at 94.5% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards62.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Andy Madley

Recorded match referee.

Andy Madley in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 307 6
Goals 2.79 3.33
Yellow cards 3.24 3.17
Red cards 0.13 0.00
Corners 11.2 10.3
Fouls 23.4 20.2
Both teams scored 50% 50%
Over 2.5 goals 57% 83%
Home wins 45% 33%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
19 Oct 2026 Tottenham vs CoventryPremier League 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 8 29
10 Oct 2026 Watford vs Burnley 0-4 4 No 0 0 8 18
18 Sep 2026 Brentford vs ChelseaPremier League 3-0 3 No 2 0 16 17
12 Sep 2026 Aston Villa vs Nottingham ForestPremier League 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 7 27
5 Sep 2026 QPR vs Middlesbrough 0-1 1 No 3 0 15 11
28 Aug 2026 Crystal Palace vs Manchester CityPremier League 1-4 5 Yes 3 0 8 19
24 May 2026 Manchester City vs Aston VillaPremier League 1-2 3 Yes 1 0 13 12
9 May 2026 Fulham vs BournemouthPremier League 0-1 1 No 6 2 13 33
25 Apr 2026 Liverpool vs Crystal PalacePremier League 3-1 4 Yes 4 0 13 20
22 Apr 2026 Burnley vs Manchester CityPremier League 0-1 1 No 0 0 14 22

Andy Madley referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Watford vs Burnley. It tips Burnley for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 80.5% 19.5%
3.5 cards 62.6% 37.4%
4.5 cards 43.3% 56.7%
5.5 cards 26.6% 73.4%

Who picks up more cards

Watford
31.8%
Level
19.4%
Burnley
48.8%

Team cards lines

Watford

Over 1.5
57.5%
Over 2.5
30.4%

Burnley

Over 1.5
68.9%
Over 2.5
42.7%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Watford's; Burnley gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Watford line Watford Burnley
-1.5 16.5% 83.5%
-0.5 31.8% 68.2%
+0.5 51.2% 48.8%
+1.5 70.1% 29.9%

Red card

Any red card5.5%
Watford red card3.8%
Burnley red card1.8%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 57.5% 42.5%
22.5 fouls 41.7% 58.3%
24.5 fouls 27.5% 72.5%
WatfordWatford

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Watford at home and Burnley away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

BurnleyBurnley
Statistic
Watford
Burnley
Cards per game at this venue
2.8
2.5

Opponent cards per game at this venue
2.0
2.3

Yellow cards per game
2.9
2.4

Red cards this season
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 62.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.5% for over 2.5 to 26.6% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.3%. Head to head on cards, Burnley are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 19.4%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Watford over 1.5 cards sits at 57.5% and Burnley at 68.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.5% (Watford 3.8%, Burnley 1.8%). This season Watford have averaged 2.9 cards a game and Burnley 2.5.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

62.6%Over 3.5 cards
5.5%Any red card
48.8%Most cards: Burnley
57.5%Watford over 1.5 cards
68.9%Burnley over 1.5 cards
41.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 62.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.5%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBurnley are the pick to collect more cards at 48.8%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 43.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
WatfordWatford

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

BurnleyBurnley
Statistic
Watford
Burnley
cards per game
2.9
2.5

fouls per game
11.8
10.6

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Watford vs Burnley?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 62.6% for Watford vs Burnley.
Will there be a red card in Watford vs Burnley?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 5.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Watford vs Burnley?
Before kickoff, the model rated Burnley to pick up more cards at 48.8%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Championship, Cards

Sheffield United vs Wrexham cards predictionLincoln vs Birmingham cards predictionNorwich vs Watford cards predictionStoke vs Preston cards predictionBolton vs Bristol City cards predictionBurnley vs Portsmouth cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

ChampionshipWatford fixtures and statsBurnley fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.