League TwoWalsall vs Port Vale Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 50.0% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 92.3% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.0% for over 2.5 to 16.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.0%. On the card count, Port Vale are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 21.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.6% | 83.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.8%
23.6%
59.4%
32.3%
Card handicap
| Walsall line | Walsall | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| -0.5 | 32.8% | 67.2% |
| +0.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 41.5% | 58.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Walsall cards per game11.8Walsall fouls per game2.0Port Vale cards per game14.8Port Vale fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Walsall vs Port Vale. Slightly more cards are projected for Port Vale for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
50.0%Over 3.5 cards7.7%Any red card49.8%Walsall over 1.5 cards59.4%Port Vale over 1.5 cards56.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Walsall over 1.5 cards sits at 49.8% and Port Vale at 59.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 7.7% (Walsall 3.0%, Port Vale 4.8%). This season Walsall have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Port Vale 2.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Walsall vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.0% for Walsall vs Port Vale.
Will there be a red card in Walsall vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 7.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Walsall vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated Port Vale to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,164 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
