League TwoWalsall vs Port Vale Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Under 2.5 at 52.9% and it landed. We called Under 3.5 at 74.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 52.7% and it landed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 52.9%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Walsall have averaged 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, Port Vale 0.6 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.1% for over 2.5 and 73.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.6 goals a game. Walsall have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Port Vale in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.7% | 8.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 11.7% | 88.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.6% | 95.4% |
Team goal lines
81.5%
50.2%
23.9%
58.3%
21.8%
5.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 17.3% | 82.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 4.0% | 96.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.7% | 83.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.3Walsall goals scored per game0.7Walsall goals conceded per game50.0%Walsall Over 2.5 rate0.5Walsall 1st-half goals per game0.5Port Vale goals scored per game1.2Port Vale goals conceded per game16.7%Port Vale Over 2.5 rate0.3Port Vale 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
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5+
In-depth analysis
48.1%Both Teams to Score47.1%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 47.1% for three or more goals and 73.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Walsall favoured at 56.0%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Walsall to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Walsall 4 · 0 draws · Port Vale 1 · 2.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Walsall vs Port Vale?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 47.1%. The match finished with 2 goals (2-0), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,782 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
