League TwoWalsall vs Port Vale Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 53.7% and it landed (24 in the match). We called Under 7.5 at 53.5% and it landed (6 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 59.0% for over 22.5 to 23.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.3%. Between the two sides, Walsall are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.2%, with a level count at 6.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.9% | 76.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
68.2%
50.9%
34.6%
54.2%
36.1%
21.5%
Shot handicap
| Walsall line | Walsall | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| -2.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| -0.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| +0.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 24.0% | 76.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
15.8Walsall shots per game15.7Walsall shots faced per game11.3Port Vale shots per game10.5Port Vale shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Walsall.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
46.3%Over 24.5 shots50.9%Walsall over 12.5 shots36.1%Port Vale over 12.5 shots46.5%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Walsall over 12.5 shots sits at 50.9% and Port Vale at 36.1%. This season Walsall have averaged 15.8 shots a game and Port Vale 11.3.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Walsall vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 46.3% for Walsall vs Port Vale.
Which team will have more shots in Walsall vs Port Vale?
Before kickoff, the model rated Walsall to take more shots at 57.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,771 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
