Super League Greece
Volos NFC vs 
AEK Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 50.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Volos NFC have averaged 0.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, AEK 2.4 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 49.2% for over 2.5 and 74.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Volos NFC have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, AEK in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.3% | 7.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 74.6% | 25.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 12.9% | 87.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.2% | 94.8% |
Team goal lines
55.2%
19.3%
4.8%
84.0%
54.7%
28.0%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 10.0% | 90.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.1% | 20.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 22.0% | 78.0% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
46.8%Both Teams to Score49.2%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 49.2% for three or more goals and 74.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With AEK favoured at 61.3%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans AEK to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Volos NFC 0 · 1 draws · AEK 4 · 3.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Volos NFC vs AEK?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 49.2% for Volos NFC vs AEK.
Will there be a first-half goal in Volos NFC vs AEK?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 66.7%.
How often have Volos NFC gone over 2.5 recently?
Volos NFC have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, AEK in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
