Super League Greece
Panetolikos vs 
PAOK Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 55.3%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Panetolikos have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, PAOK 2.2 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 44.7% for over 2.5 and 71.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. Panetolikos have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, PAOK in 4 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.4% | 89.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.0% | 96.0% |
Team goal lines
63.9%
27.1%
8.4%
76.5%
42.4%
17.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 13.3% | 86.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 13.0% | 87.0% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
49.5%Both Teams to Score44.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 44.7% for three or more goals and 71.2% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given PAOK favoured at 46.3%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans PAOK to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Panetolikos 0 · 1 draws · PAOK 4 · 2.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 44.7% for Panetolikos vs PAOK.
Will there be a first-half goal in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 71.6%.
How often have Panetolikos gone over 2.5 recently?
Panetolikos have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, PAOK in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
