Super League Greece
Volos NFC vs 
AEK Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Draw or Away at 84.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, AEK are favoured at 61.3%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Volos NFC by 1 | 10.7% |
| Volos NFC by 2 | 3.7% |
| Volos NFC by 3+ | 1.1% |
| AEK by 1 | 24.8% |
| AEK by 2 | 19.1% |
| AEK by 3+ | 17.4% |
| Draw | 23.2% |
Goal handicap
| Volos NFC line | Volos NFC | AEK |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| +0.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| +1.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| +2.5 | 82.6% | 17.4% |
Double chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is draw or AEK on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
46.8%Both Teams to Score
49.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, AEK are favoured at 61.3%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Volos NFC 0 · 1 draws · AEK 4 · 3.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Volos NFC vs AEK?
Draw or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Volos NFC vs AEK at 84.5%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Volos NFC vs AEK?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Volos NFC at 20.2% and AEK at 79.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,075 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Super League Greece, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
