La Liga
Villarreal vs 
Levante Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 59.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.5% for over 2.5 to 24.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 59.0%. On the card count, Levante are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 19.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.5% | 22.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 24.6% | 75.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.2%
33.1%
61.9%
35.9%
Card handicap
| Villarreal line | Villarreal | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| -0.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| +0.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| +1.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 46.9% | 53.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.7Villarreal cards per game11.0Villarreal fouls per game1.0Levante cards per game10.0Levante fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Villarreal vs Levante. Slightly more cards are projected for Levante for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
59.0%Over 3.5 cards17.3%Any red card59.2%Villarreal over 1.5 cards61.9%Levante over 1.5 cards60.8%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Villarreal over 1.5 cards sits at 59.2% and Levante at 61.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.3% (Villarreal 10.1%, Levante 8.0%). This season Villarreal have averaged 1.7 cards a game and Levante 1.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Villarreal vs Levante?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 59.0% for Villarreal vs Levante.
Will there be a red card in Villarreal vs Levante?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Villarreal vs Levante?
The model rates Levante to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 19.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
