La Liga
Villarreal vs 
Levante Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 64.8% for over 22.5 to 28.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. Head to head on shots, Villarreal are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.3%, with a level count at 5.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.8% | 71.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
76.2%
60.6%
44.2%
52.4%
34.2%
20.0%
Shot handicap
| Villarreal line | Villarreal | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| -2.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| -0.5 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| +0.5 | 71.0% | 29.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 45.2% | 54.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
7.2 / 7.6
5.2 / 6.4
This season (2026/27)
15.2Villarreal shots per game14.0Villarreal shots faced per game7.2Villarreal first-half shots7.6Villarreal second-half shots11.6Levante shots per game14.0Levante shots faced per game5.2Levante first-half shots6.4Levante second-half shotsTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Villarreal.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
52.3%Over 24.5 shots60.6%Villarreal over 12.5 shots34.2%Levante over 12.5 shots69.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Villarreal over 12.5 shots sits at 60.6% and Levante at 34.2%. This season Villarreal have averaged 15.2 shots a game and Levante 11.6. Villarreal take 7.2 shots before half-time and 7.6 after, Levante 5.2 and 6.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Villarreal vs Levante?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 52.3% for Villarreal vs Levante.
Which team will have more shots in Villarreal vs Levante?
The model rates Villarreal to take more shots at 65.3%.
Do Villarreal shoot more in the first or second half?
Villarreal average 7.2 shots before half-time and 7.6 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
