La Liga
Valencia vs 
Sociedad Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 47.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 72.5% for over 7.5 to 18.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.4%. Between the two sides, Valencia are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.8%, with a level count at 10.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 72.5% | 27.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 9.5 corners | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.5% | 73.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.2% | 81.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.9%
57.3%
41.9%
60.7%
43.3%
28.4%
Corner handicap
| Valencia line | Valencia | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| -0.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| +1.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Valencia corners won per game3.5Valencia corners conceded per game7.7Sociedad corners won per game3.8Sociedad corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Valencia.
In-depth analysis
48.4%Over 9.5 corners57.3%Valencia over 4.5 corners43.3%Sociedad over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Valencia over 4.5 corners sits at 57.3% and Sociedad at 43.3%. This season Valencia have averaged 4.0 corners won a game and Sociedad 7.7.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Valencia vs Sociedad?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 48.4% for Valencia vs Sociedad.
Which team will win the corner count in Valencia vs Sociedad?
The model rates Valencia to win the corner count at 53.8%, with a level count at 10.8%.
How many corners do Valencia and Sociedad average this season?
Valencia have won 4.0 corners a game this season and Sociedad 7.7.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 19 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
