Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 prediction & probabilities (2026-09-11)

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Union Berlin vs Schalke 04: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Union Berlin

DWWDL

Fri, 11 Sep 202619:30UK18°C · Cloudy
Schalke 04

LDLLD

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

77%

Union Berlin or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedTrust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Union BerlinWin probability
53.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Union Berlin or draw76.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Over 8.5 corners61.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

Few Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Union Berlin carry a 53% win probability against Schalke 04 on 11 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Union Berlin than the market (39%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. 3) The recent series reads 1 wins for Union Berlin, 4 draws and 0 for Schalke 04 over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Union Berlin W2 D2 L2, Schalke 04 W1 D2 L3. For shots markets, Tim Skarke is the obvious watch at 0.8 on target per 90 in recent data. Schalke 04 are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Schalke 0446.7%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners40.2%@ 2.49
Over 11.5 corners30.9%@ 3.24
Medium risk

Both teams to score60.0%@ 1.67
Over 2.5 goals59.2%@ 1.69
Over 9.5 corners50.4%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.08
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.34
1-0 correct score8.0%@ 12.44

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Union Berlin

53.3%+14.3%

Draw

23.4%-3.6%

Schalke 04

23.4%-10.6%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.6%

High probability

Over 2.559.2%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes60.0%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.2%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.4%

Good chance

Over 10.540.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.9%

Toss-up

Most cornersUnion Berlin59.0%Schalke 0430.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.570.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.558.9%

Good chance

Over 26.546.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.535.2%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Union Berlin12.5 taken14.3 faced
Schalke 0410.8 taken16.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Union Berlin (2 games)

2.0 / 10.0

Schalke 04 (2 games)

6.0 / 1.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.6%2.559.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.6%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Form & head-to-head

Union BerlinDWWDL
Schalke 04LDLLD

Last 5 meetings: Union Berlin 1 · 4 draws · Schalke 04 0 · 2.2 goals/game.

2023-02-19Union Berlin 0-0 Schalke 04
2022-08-27Schalke 04 1-6 Union Berlin
2021-02-13Union Berlin 0-0 Schalke 04
2020-10-18Schalke 04 1-1 Union Berlin
2020-06-07Union Berlin 1-1 Schalke 04

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Union BerlinSchalke 04
League position#15 of 18#14 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-10-1-1
Current streakL1D1
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Tim SkarkeUnion Berlin · key player
To score3.7%

@ 27.03

1+ on target25.3%

@ 3.95

2+ shots14.0%

@ 7.14

Shots/90 1.9SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.11
Junior AdamuSchalke 04 · key player
To score8.6%

@ 11.63

1+ on target34.7%

@ 2.88

2+ shots39.5%

@ 2.53

Shots/90 2.11SoT/90 0.66Goals/90 0.14
Woo-Yeong JeongUnion Berlin · in form
To score12.7%

@ 7.87

1+ on target25.0%

@ 4.00

2+ shots23.5%

@ 4.26

Shots/90 1.7SoT/90 0.53Goals/90 0.25
Eric Junior Dina EbimbeSchalke 04 · in form
To score13.0%

@ 7.69

1+ on target19.8%

@ 5.05

2+ shots25.4%

@ 3.94

Shots/90 2.03SoT/90 0.46Goals/90 0.29
Tom RotheUnion Berlin · in form
To score9.8%

@ 10.20

1+ on target26.6%

@ 3.76

2+ shots22.6%

@ 4.42

Shots/90 1.39SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.16
Robin GosensSchalke 04 · in form
To score11.1%

@ 9.01

1+ on target19.6%

@ 5.10

2+ shots16.0%

@ 6.25

Shots/90 0.85SoT/90 0.26Goals/90 0.14

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Union Berlin win2.451.88
Draw3.504.28
Schalke 04 win2.804.28
Over 2.5 goals1.671.69
Under 2.5 goals2.202.45

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Union Berlin win1.95
Draw4.20
Schalke 04 win4.02
Both teams to score1.67

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.69
Over 3.5 goals2.71
Union Berlin most1.95
Schalke 04 most4.02

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.57
Over 9.5 corners1.93
Over 10.5 corners2.49
Union Berlin most1.69
Schalke 04 most3.26

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.95
Over 4.5 cards3.13
Over 5.5 cards5.72
Union Berlin most2.60
Schalke 04 most2.50

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.22
Over 7.5 SoT1.39
Over 8.5 SoT1.64
Over 9.5 SoT2.03
Union Berlin most1.63
Schalke 04 most3.60

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.42
Over 24.5 shots1.70
Over 26.5 shots2.14
Over 28.5 shots2.84
Union Berlin most1.55
Schalke 04 most3.32

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.08
Over 22.5 fouls2.77
Over 24.5 fouls3.88
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 70.5% Over 24.5 58.9% Over 26.5 46.8% Over 28.5 35.2%
Most: Union Berlin 64.4% Most: Schalke 04 30.1%
Union Berlin Over 13.2 56.5% Schalke 04 Over 13.2 31.6%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.8% Over 7.5 72.1% Over 8.5 60.9% Over 9.5 49.3%
Most: Union Berlin 61.5% Most: Schalke 04 27.7%
Union Berlin Over 4.2 63.0% Schalke 04 Over 4.2 38.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.0% Over 3.5 51.3% Over 4.5 31.9%
Most: Union Berlin 38.5% Most: Schalke 04 40.1%
Union Berlin Over 1.8 55.1% Schalke 04 Over 1.8 56.3%

Union Berlin: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Tim Skarke 1.9 0.85 0.11 25.3% 14.0% 3.7%
Woo-Yeong Jeong 1.7 0.53 0.25 25.0% 23.5% 12.7%
Tom Rothe 1.39 0.48 0.16 26.6% 22.6% 9.8%
Livan Burcu 2.24 0.37 0.12 13.8% 22.7% 4.7%
Andras Schafer 1.13 0.34 0.09 18.6% 15.0% 5.3%

Schalke 04: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Junior Adamu 2.11 0.66 0.14 34.7% 39.5% 8.6%
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe 2.03 0.46 0.29 19.8% 25.4% 13.0%
Robin Gosens 0.85 0.26 0.14 19.6% 16.0% 11.1%
Timo Becker 0.49 0.08 0 7.0% 7.4% 0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Union Berlin clean sheet 29.0%
Schalke 04 clean sheet 15.8%
Union Berlin win to nil 23.8%
Schalke 04 win to nil 10.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 51.3% draw 23.8% away 24.9%
double_chance
1X 75.1% 12 76.2% X2 48.7%
dnb
home 67.4% away 32.6%
btts
yes 60.0% no 40.0%
clean_sheet
home 29.4% away 15.8%
win_to_nil
home 24.2% away 10.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.1% home_by_2 15.8% home_by_3plus 13.4%
away_by_1 14.5% away_by_2 7.0% away_by_3plus 3.3%
correct_score
0-0 5.2% 0-1 5.2% 0-2 3.5%
0-3 1.4% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.0% 1-1 11.0% 1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.9% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 4.9% 3-1 5.9% 3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.2% 4-1 2.7% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 1.0% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.8% under_0.5 5.2% over_1.5 81.6%
under_1.5 18.4% over_2.5 59.2% under_2.5 40.8%
over_3.5 36.9% under_3.5 63.1% over_4.5 19.7%
under_4.5 80.3% over_5.5 9.1% under_5.5 90.9%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.2% under_0.5 15.8% over_1.5 55.0%
under_1.5 45.0% over_2.5 28.1% under_2.5 71.9%
team_away
over_0.5 70.6% under_0.5 29.4% over_1.5 34.7%
under_1.5 65.3% over_2.5 12.7% under_2.5 87.4%
most
home 51.3% draw 23.8% away 24.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.4% away_+2.5 86.6% home_-1.5 29.2%
away_+1.5 70.8% home_-0.5 51.3% away_+0.5 48.7%
home_+0.5 75.1% away_-0.5 24.9% home_+1.5 89.7%
away_-1.5 10.3% home_+2.5 96.7% away_-2.5 3.3%
total_exact
exact_0 5.2% exact_1 13.2% exact_2 22.4%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.2% exact_5 10.5%
exact_6 5.4% exact_7plus 3.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.9% draw 43.6% away 29.5%
total
over_0.5 67.4% under_0.5 32.6% over_1.5 30.9%
under_1.5 69.1% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
btts
yes 18.4% no 81.6%
total_exact
exact_0 32.6% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.5%
exact_3 7.7% exact_4plus 2.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.2% draw 34.7% away 23.1%
total
over_0.5 79.6% under_0.5 20.4% over_1.5 47.1%
under_1.5 52.9% over_2.5 21.4% under_2.5 78.6%
btts
yes 28.8% no 71.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.8% H/D 3.8% H/A 1.3%
D/H 18.4% D/D 15.2% D/A 10.1%
A/H 3.8% A/D 6.5% A/A 19.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.1% under_7.5 24.9% over_8.5 63.9%
under_8.5 36.1% over_9.5 51.8% under_9.5 48.2%
over_10.5 40.1% under_10.5 59.9% over_11.5 29.6%
under_11.5 70.4% over_12.5 20.8% under_12.5 79.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.3% under_3.5 22.8% over_4.5 63.0%
under_4.5 37.0% over_5.5 48.0% under_5.5 52.0%
team_away
over_3.5 58.7% under_3.5 41.3% over_4.5 41.3%
under_4.5 58.7% over_5.5 26.7% under_5.5 73.3%
most
home 59.1% draw 10.2% away 30.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.1% away_+3.5 71.9% home_-1.5 48.3%
away_+1.5 51.7% home_-0.5 59.1% away_+0.5 40.9%
home_+0.5 69.3% away_-0.5 30.7% home_+1.5 78.1%
away_-1.5 21.9% home_+3.5 90.6% away_-3.5 9.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 70.5% under_22.5 29.5% over_24.5 58.9%
under_24.5 41.1% over_26.5 46.8% under_26.5 53.2%
over_28.5 35.2% under_28.5 64.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.9% under_10.5 21.1% over_12.5 64.4%
under_12.5 35.6% over_14.5 48.5% under_14.5 51.5%
team_away
over_10.5 57.5% under_10.5 42.5% over_12.5 39.6%
under_12.5 60.4% over_14.5 24.7% under_14.5 75.4%
most
home 64.4% draw 5.6% away 30.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.3% away_+4.5 59.7% home_-2.5 52.4%
away_+2.5 47.6% home_-0.5 64.4% away_+0.5 35.6%
home_+0.5 69.9% away_-0.5 30.1% home_+2.5 79.7%
away_-2.5 20.3% home_+4.5 87.2% away_-4.5 12.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.8% under_6.5 18.2% over_7.5 72.1%
under_7.5 27.9% over_8.5 60.9% under_8.5 39.1%
over_9.5 49.3% under_9.5 50.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.4% under_3.5 22.6% over_4.5 63.0%
under_4.5 37.0% over_5.5 47.8% under_5.5 52.2%
team_away
over_3.5 56.2% under_3.5 43.8% over_4.5 38.4%
under_4.5 61.6% over_5.5 24.0% under_5.5 76.0%
most
home 61.5% draw 10.8% away 27.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 38.2% away_+2.5 61.8% home_-0.5 61.5%
away_+0.5 38.6% home_+0.5 72.3% away_-0.5 27.7%
home_+2.5 88.2% away_-2.5 11.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.0% under_2.5 28.0% over_3.5 51.3%
under_3.5 48.7% over_4.5 31.9% under_4.5 68.1%
over_5.5 17.5% under_5.5 82.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 55.1% under_1.5 44.9% over_2.5 28.2%
under_2.5 71.8%
team_away
over_1.5 56.3% under_1.5 43.7% over_2.5 29.3%
under_2.5 70.7%
most
home 38.5% draw 21.5% away 40.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.3% away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 38.5%
away_+0.5 61.6% home_+0.5 59.9% away_-0.5 40.1%
home_+1.5 78.5% away_-1.5 21.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 48.2% under_20.5 51.8% over_22.5 36.2%
under_22.5 63.8% over_24.5 25.8% under_24.5 74.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.9% under_9.5 43.1% over_11.5 39.7%
under_11.5 60.3% over_13.5 25.4% under_13.5 74.6%
team_away
over_9.5 49.6% under_9.5 50.4% over_11.5 32.5%
under_11.5 67.5% over_13.5 19.5% under_13.5 80.5%
most
home 51.9% draw 6.5% away 41.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.0% away_+3.5 67.0% home_-0.5 51.9%
away_+0.5 48.1% home_+2.5 70.5% away_-2.5 29.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.1% no 79.9%
home
yes 5.1% no 94.9%
away
yes 15.8% no 84.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Union Berlin predictions · Schalke 04 predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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