Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs 
Schalke 04 Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 11.0% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Union Berlin have averaged 2.4 scored and 2.0 conceded, Schalke 04 0.8 and 3.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 59.2% for over 2.5 and 81.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-0 | 8.0% |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
| 1-2 | 6.4% |
| 3-1 | 5.9% |
| 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 0-0 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| Union Berlin \ Schalke 04 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 8% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Union Berlin goals, columns = Schalke 04. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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4
5+
In-depth analysis
60.0%Both Teams to Score59.2%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 59.2% for three or more goals and 81.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Union Berlin favoured at 53.3%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Union Berlin 1 · 4 draws · Schalke 04 0 · 2.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
The model's most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 is 1-1 at 11.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.