Ligue 1
Toulouse vs 
Lyon Shots
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 48.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 61.4% for over 22.5 to 25.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. On the shot count, Toulouse are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.6%, with a level count at 6.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.7% | 74.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.8%
56.3%
39.7%
52.0%
33.8%
19.7%
Shot handicap
| Toulouse line | Toulouse | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| -2.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| -0.5 | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| +0.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.6% | 60.5% |
This season (2025/26)
12.5Toulouse shots per game12.3Lyon shots per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Toulouse.
In-depth analysis
48.7%Over 24.5 shots56.3%Toulouse over 12.5 shots33.8%Lyon over 12.5 shots64.0%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Toulouse over 12.5 shots sits at 56.3% and Lyon at 33.8%. This season Toulouse have averaged 12.5 shots a game and Lyon 12.3.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 48.7% for Toulouse vs Lyon.
Which team will have more shots in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Toulouse to take more shots at 62.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.