Ligue 1
Toulouse vs 
Lyon Corners
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 49.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.8% for over 7.5 to 19.9% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.4%. On the corner count, Toulouse are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.2%, with a level count at 10.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 62.5% | 37.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 28.4% | 71.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 19.9% | 80.1% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.4%
59.4%
44.2%
60.7%
43.6%
28.7%
Corner handicap
| Toulouse line | Toulouse | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| -0.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| +0.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| +1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
This season (2025/26)
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Toulouse.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Toulouse over 4.5 corners sits at 59.4% and Lyon at 43.6%. This season Toulouse have averaged 4.4 corners won a game and Lyon 5.9.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 50.4% for Toulouse vs Lyon.
Which team will win the corner count in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Toulouse to win the corner count at 55.2%, with a level count at 10.6%.
How many corners do Toulouse and Lyon average this season?
Toulouse have won 4.4 corners a game this season and Lyon 5.9.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.