Toulouse vs Lyon prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

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Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Lyon Double Chance

2026-08-22 · 19:45
Double Chance73.9%Home or Away
Best predictionHome or Away · 73.9%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.
74%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Home or Away at 73.9%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Toulouse are favoured at 38.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Double Chance

Toulouse or Draw64.5%

Draw or Lyon61.6%

★ Top coverToulouse or Lyon73.9%

Double chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Toulouse or Lyon on the model numbers.

In-depth analysis

38.4%Favoured: Toulouse
56.3%Both Teams to Score
51.8%Over 2.5 goals

On the result, Toulouse are favoured at 38.4%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 73.9% on Double Chance, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianProjects a balanced game from the 51.8% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutToulouse are the model’s pick on the result at 38.4%, game state shapes how this market plays out.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Key players

Z

Zakaria AboukhlalToulouse · 2.93 shots/90
To score 23.9%

E

EndrickLyon · 3.53 shots/90
To score 26.8%

Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

ToulouseLDWWD
LyonWWWLL

Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 2 · 1 draws · Lyon 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

FAQ

What is the most likely double chance in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Toulouse vs Lyon at 73.9%.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Double Chance accuracy

How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

75.7%Best Double Chance call, hit rate
0.0099Calibration error
54,728Matches graded

In 39,531 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Double Chance calls

The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 87.7%✓ 80.7%✓ 73.4%✗ 82.2%✓ 75.2%✗ 74.2%✗ 74.1%✗ 72.1%✓ 72.2%✓ 73.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Almeria vs Valladolid2026-05-31Home or Draw 87.7%Hit
Burgos vs Andorra2026-05-31Home or Draw 80.7%Hit
Castellon vs Eibar2026-05-31Home or Away 73.4%Hit
La Coruna vs Las Palmas2026-05-31Home or Draw 82.2%Miss
Santander vs Cadiz2026-05-31Home or Draw 75.2%Hit

More Ligue 1, Double Chance

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Related

Ligue 1ToulouseLyonTrack record

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.