Ligue 1
Toulouse vs 
Lyon Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 57.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.4% for over 2.5 to 21.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.0%. Head to head on cards, Toulouse are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 20.6%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.7% | 78.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.4%
35.4%
56.7%
29.7%
Card handicap
| Toulouse line | Toulouse | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| -0.5 | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| +0.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| +1.5 | 81.2% | 18.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 51.9% | 48.1% |
This season (2025/26)
2.4Toulouse cards per game14.1Toulouse fouls per game2.0Lyon cards per game13.0Lyon fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Toulouse vs Lyon. The model leans toward Toulouse for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
57.0%Over 3.5 cards26.2%Any red card62.4%Toulouse over 1.5 cards56.7%Lyon over 1.5 cards65.8%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Toulouse over 1.5 cards sits at 62.4% and Lyon at 56.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 26.2% (Toulouse 18.5%, Lyon 9.4%). This season Toulouse have averaged 2.4 cards a game and Lyon 2.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.0% for Toulouse vs Lyon.
Will there be a red card in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 26.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Toulouse vs Lyon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Toulouse to pick up more cards at 43.7%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.