Toulouse vs Lyon: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 1

Toulouse

LDWWD

Full time0-2Sat, 22 Aug 202619:45UK28°C · Cloudy

Lyon

WWWLL

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Toulouse or draw

62%

Draw or Lyon

Full time0 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Toulouse 0-2 Lyon

✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score

0 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Toulouse at 38.4%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 51.8% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 56.3% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

ToulouseWin probability

38.4%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.31

Toulouse or draw64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Draw or Lyon61.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Toulouse and Lyon on 22 August 2026: Toulouse nose ahead at 38%. Our number sits above the market's 34% for Toulouse. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Toulouse against W4 D0 L2 for Lyon. The recent series reads 2 wins for Toulouse, 1 draws and 2 for Lyon over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Conditions could matter: the forecast says 28 degrees of heat. Zakaria Aboukhlal drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.38, zone (0.45, 0.7))).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.0%@ 2.56

Lyon win35.5%@ 2.82

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.0%@ 1.67

Both teams to score56.3%@ 1.78

Over 2.5 goals51.8%@ 1.93

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.89

2-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.75

1-0 correct score8.5%@ 11.81

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Toulouse

38.4%+4.4%

Draw

26.1%-1.7%

Lyon

35.5%-2.7%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.38, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.8%

Low chance

Most cornersToulouse55.1%Lyon34.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.7%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.5%2.551.8%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ToulouseLDWWD

LyonWWWLL

Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 2 · 1 draws · Lyon 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-05-10Toulouse 2-1 Lyon

2025-10-05Lyon 1-2 Toulouse

2025-01-18Lyon 0-0 Toulouse

2024-09-29Toulouse 1-2 Lyon

2024-03-15Toulouse 2-3 Lyon

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

Toulouse

Lyon

League position#9 of 18#4 of 18

Record W-D-L12-9-1318-6-10

Current streakD1L2

Points per game1.321.76

Record, home vs away6-6-56-5-6

PPG, home vs away1.411.35

Goals scored per game1.381.56

Goals conceded per game1.351.18

Scored, home vs away1.471.35

Conceded, home vs away1.411.29

1st half goals per game0.590.79

2nd half goals per game0.790.76

Corners won per game4.45.9

Cards per game2.42.0

Fouls per game14.113.0

Red cards this season57

Shots per game12.512.3

Shots on target per game4.24.7

xG for per game1.401.62

xG against per game1.341.41

Over 2.5 rate

52.9%55.9%

BTTS rate

47.1%50.0%

Clean sheets

29.4%44.1%

Rates this season:ToulouseLyon

League averages this season: 2.82 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 51%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Zakaria AboukhlalToulouse · key player

To score24.3%

@ 4.12

1+ on target61.7%

@ 1.62

2+ shots68.3%

@ 1.46

Shots/90 2.88SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.34

EndrickLyon · key player

To score26.8%

@ 3.73

1+ on target79.0%

@ 1.27

2+ shots81.0%

@ 1.23

Shots/90 3.53SoT/90 1.8Goals/90 0.36

EmersonnToulouse · in form

To score23.1%

@ 4.33

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots56.4%

@ 1.77

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.42

Georges MikautadzeLyon · in form

To score29.2%

@ 3.42

1+ on target56.4%

@ 1.77

2+ shots52.8%

@ 1.89

Shots/90 3.75SoT/90 1.76Goals/90 0.73

Joshua KingToulouse · in form

To score19.3%

@ 5.18

1+ on target51.1%

@ 1.96

2+ shots53.3%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 2.67SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.32

Alexandre LacazetteLyon · in form

To score39.6%

@ 2.53

1+ on target70.8%

@ 1.41

2+ shots58.5%

@ 1.71

Shots/90 2.54SoT/90 1.59Goals/90 0.65

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Toulouse win2.802.60

Draw3.403.83

Lyon win2.502.82

Over 2.5 goals1.831.93

Under 2.5 goals2.032.07

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Toulouse win2.61

Draw3.74

Lyon win2.86

Both teams to score1.78

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08

Over 1.5 goals1.31

Over 2.5 goals1.93

Over 3.5 goals3.37

Toulouse most2.61

Lyon most2.86

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35

Over 8.5 corners1.60

Over 9.5 corners1.98

Over 10.5 corners2.58

Toulouse most1.81

Lyon most2.92

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.31

Over 3.5 cards1.76

Over 4.5 cards2.67

Over 5.5 cards4.60

Toulouse most2.29

Lyon most2.80

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.32

Over 7.5 SoT1.56

Over 8.5 SoT1.94

Over 9.5 SoT2.53

Toulouse most1.98

Lyon most2.71

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63

Over 24.5 shots2.05

Over 26.5 shots2.74

Over 28.5 shots3.89

Toulouse most1.60

Lyon most3.18

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.28

Over 22.5 fouls1.52

Over 24.5 fouls1.92

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	75.6%	Over 7.5	64.0%	Over 8.5	51.6%	Over 9.5	39.6%
Most: Toulouse	50.6%	Most: Lyon	36.9%
Toulouse Over 4.2	49.6%	Lyon Over 4.2	39.7%

Cards

Over 2.5	76.4%	Over 3.5	57.0%	Over 4.5	37.4%
Most: Toulouse	43.7%	Most: Lyon	35.7%
Toulouse Over 1.8	62.4%	Lyon Over 1.8	56.7%

Toulouse: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Zakaria Aboukhlal	2.88	1.17	0.34	61.7%	68.3%	24.3%
Emersonn	3.03	1.13	0.42	50.6%	56.4%	23.1%
Joshua King	2.67	1.07	0.32	51.1%	53.3%	19.3%
Frank Magri	2.45	0.96	0.33	46.1%	46.7%	19.1%
Pape Diop	2.2	0.83	0.08	51.8%	57.6%	6.8%

Lyon: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Endrick	3.53	1.8	0.36	79.0%	81.0%	26.8%
Georges Mikautadze	3.75	1.76	0.73	56.4%	52.8%	29.2%
Alexandre Lacazette	2.54	1.59	0.65	70.8%	58.5%	39.6%
Ernest Nuamah	2.68	1.2	0.28	40.5%	32.3%	11.4%
Pavel Sulc	2.54	0.98	0.58	46.7%	48.6%	31.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Toulouse clean sheet	26.3%
Lyon clean sheet	24.3%
Toulouse win to nil	19.2%
Lyon win to nil	17.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	38.4%	draw	26.7%	away	34.9%

double_chance

1X	65.1%	12	73.3%	X2	61.7%

dnb

home	52.3%	away	47.7%

btts

yes	56.3%	no	43.7%

clean_sheet

home	26.4%	away	24.4%

win_to_nil

home	19.3%	away	17.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	20.1%	home_by_2	11.5%	home_by_3plus	6.8%
away_by_1	19.0%	away_by_2	10.3%	away_by_3plus	5.7%

correct_score

0-0	7.0%	0-1	8.0%	0-2	5.7%
0-3	2.6%	0-4	0.9%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	8.5%	1-1	12.7%	1-2	8.1%
1-3	3.6%	1-4	1.2%	1-5	0.3%
2-0	6.4%	2-1	8.5%	2-2	5.7%
2-3	2.5%	2-4	0.9%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	3.0%	3-1	4.0%	3-2	2.7%
3-3	1.2%	3-4	0.4%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.1%	4-1	1.4%	4-2	0.9%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.6%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.7%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	93.0%	under_0.5	7.0%	over_1.5	76.6%
under_1.5	23.5%	over_2.5	51.8%	under_2.5	48.2%
over_3.5	29.6%	under_3.5	70.4%	over_4.5	14.4%
under_4.5	85.6%	over_5.5	6.1%	under_5.5	93.9%

odd_even

odd	48.6%	even	51.4%

team_home

over_0.5	75.6%	under_0.5	24.4%	over_1.5	41.2%
under_1.5	58.8%	over_2.5	16.9%	under_2.5	83.1%

team_away

over_0.5	73.6%	under_0.5	26.4%	over_1.5	38.6%
under_1.5	61.4%	over_2.5	15.2%	under_2.5	84.8%

most

home	38.4%	draw	26.7%	away	34.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	6.8%	away_+2.5	93.2%	home_-1.5	18.2%
away_+1.5	81.8%	home_-0.5	38.4%	away_+0.5	61.7%
home_+0.5	65.1%	away_-0.5	34.9%	home_+1.5	84.1%
away_-1.5	15.9%	home_+2.5	94.3%	away_-2.5	5.7%

total_exact

exact_0	7.0%	exact_1	16.4%	exact_2	24.8%
exact_3	22.1%	exact_4	15.2%	exact_5	8.4%
exact_6	3.8%	exact_7plus	2.2%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	25.1%	draw	40.9%	away	34.0%

total

over_0.5	71.2%	under_0.5	28.8%	over_1.5	35.3%
under_1.5	64.7%	over_2.5	13.0%	under_2.5	87.0%

btts

yes	21.2%	no	78.8%

total_exact

exact_0	28.8%	exact_1	35.9%	exact_2	22.3%
exact_3	9.3%	exact_4plus	3.8%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	34.9%	draw	35.8%	away	29.3%

total

over_0.5	79.0%	under_0.5	21.0%	over_1.5	46.2%
under_1.5	53.8%	over_2.5	20.7%	under_2.5	79.3%

btts

yes	29.2%	no	70.8%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	19.0%	H/D	4.3%	H/A	1.8%
D/H	14.3%	D/D	14.6%	D/A	12.0%
A/H	3.0%	A/D	6.3%	A/A	24.6%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	73.8%	under_7.5	26.2%	over_8.5	62.5%
under_8.5	37.6%	over_9.5	50.4%	under_9.5	49.6%
over_10.5	38.8%	under_10.5	61.2%	over_11.5	28.4%
under_11.5	71.6%	over_12.5	19.9%	under_12.5	80.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.4%	under_3.5	25.6%	over_4.5	59.4%
under_4.5	40.6%	over_5.5	44.2%	under_5.5	55.8%

team_away

over_3.5	60.7%	under_3.5	39.3%	over_4.5	43.6%
under_4.5	56.5%	over_5.5	28.7%	under_5.5	71.3%

most

home	55.2%	draw	10.6%	away	34.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	24.7%	away_+3.5	75.3%	home_-1.5	44.3%
away_+1.5	55.7%	home_-0.5	55.2%	away_+0.5	44.8%
home_+0.5	65.7%	away_-0.5	34.3%	home_+1.5	75.2%
away_-1.5	24.8%	home_+3.5	89.0%	away_-3.5	11.0%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	61.4%	under_22.5	38.6%	over_24.5	48.7%
under_24.5	51.3%	over_26.5	36.5%	under_26.5	63.5%
over_28.5	25.7%	under_28.5	74.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	72.8%	under_10.5	27.2%	over_12.5	56.3%
under_12.5	43.7%	over_14.5	39.7%	under_14.5	60.3%

team_away

over_10.5	52.0%	under_10.5	48.0%	over_12.5	33.8%
under_12.5	66.2%	over_14.5	19.7%	under_14.5	80.3%

most

home	62.6%	draw	6.0%	away	31.5%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.2%	away_+4.5	62.8%	home_-2.5	49.8%
away_+2.5	50.2%	home_-0.5	62.6%	away_+0.5	37.4%
home_+0.5	68.5%	away_-0.5	31.5%	home_+2.5	79.0%
away_-2.5	21.0%	home_+4.5	87.1%	away_-4.5	12.9%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	75.6%	under_6.5	24.4%	over_7.5	64.0%
under_7.5	36.0%	over_8.5	51.6%	under_8.5	48.4%
over_9.5	39.6%	under_9.5	60.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	66.8%	under_3.5	33.2%	over_4.5	49.6%
under_4.5	50.4%	over_5.5	33.8%	under_5.5	66.2%

team_away

over_3.5	57.7%	under_3.5	42.3%	over_4.5	39.7%
under_4.5	60.3%	over_5.5	24.9%	under_5.5	75.1%

most

home	50.6%	draw	12.5%	away	36.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	26.9%	away_+2.5	73.1%	home_-0.5	50.6%
away_+0.5	49.4%	home_+0.5	63.1%	away_-0.5	36.9%
home_+2.5	83.3%	away_-2.5	16.7%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	76.4%	under_2.5	23.6%	over_3.5	57.0%
under_3.5	43.0%	over_4.5	37.4%	under_4.5	62.6%
over_5.5	21.7%	under_5.5	78.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	62.4%	under_1.5	37.6%	over_2.5	35.4%
under_2.5	64.6%

team_away

over_1.5	56.7%	under_1.5	43.3%	over_2.5	29.7%
under_2.5	70.3%

most

home	43.7%	draw	20.6%	away	35.7%

handicap

home_-1.5	25.0%	away_+1.5	75.0%	home_-0.5	43.7%
away_+0.5	56.3%	home_+0.5	64.3%	away_-0.5	35.7%
home_+1.5	81.2%	away_-1.5	18.9%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	78.2%	under_20.5	21.8%	over_22.5	65.8%
under_22.5	34.2%	over_24.5	51.9%	under_24.5	48.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	81.9%	under_9.5	18.1%	over_11.5	65.2%
under_11.5	34.8%	over_13.5	46.2%	under_13.5	53.8%

team_away

over_9.5	69.7%	under_9.5	30.3%	over_11.5	49.2%
under_11.5	50.8%	over_13.5	30.2%	under_13.5	69.8%

most

home	58.0%	draw	6.8%	away	35.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	37.1%	away_+3.5	62.9%	home_-0.5	58.0%
away_+0.5	42.0%	home_+2.5	76.9%	away_-2.5	23.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	26.2%	no	73.8%

home

yes	18.5%	no	81.5%

away

yes	9.4%	no	90.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Toulouse predictions · Lyon predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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