Shots
| Over 22.5 |
67.6% |
Over 24.5 |
55.4% |
Over 26.5 |
43.1% |
Over 28.5 |
31.7% |
| Most: Le Mans |
54.0% |
Most: Lens |
39.8% |
| Le Mans Over 13.2 |
46.6% |
Lens Over 13.2 |
36.5% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
79.0% |
Over 7.5 |
68.2% |
Over 8.5 |
56.2% |
Over 9.5 |
44.2% |
| Most: Le Mans |
48.3% |
Most: Lens |
39.4% |
| Le Mans Over 4.2 |
51.2% |
Lens Over 4.2 |
44.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
72.4% |
Over 3.5 |
51.8% |
Over 4.5 |
32.4% |
| Most: Le Mans |
32.7% |
Most: Lens |
46.2% |
| Le Mans Over 1.8 |
50.9% |
Lens Over 1.8 |
60.7% |
Le Mans: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Habib Diallo |
1.81 |
0.56 |
0.19 |
37.1% |
44.1% |
14.5% |
Lens: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Odsonne Edouard |
2.88 |
1.44 |
0.56 |
57.7% |
51.3% |
28.4% |
| Florian Thauvin |
2.59 |
1.13 |
0.41 |
62.7% |
66.0% |
30.1% |
| Abdallah Sima |
2.99 |
1.08 |
0.35 |
39.9% |
41.1% |
15.2% |
| Andrija Bulatovic |
1.87 |
0.82 |
0 |
27.4% |
16.6% |
0.0% |
| Florian Sotoca |
2.19 |
0.58 |
0.09 |
20.7% |
21.8% |
3.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Le Mans clean sheet |
13.6% |
| Lens clean sheet |
33.5% |
| Le Mans win to nil |
8.5% |
| Lens win to nil |
28.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
19.5% |
draw |
22.4% |
away |
58.1% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
41.9% |
12 |
77.6% |
X2 |
80.5% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
12.2% |
home_by_2 |
5.2% |
home_by_3plus |
2.1% |
| away_by_1 |
22.9% |
away_by_2 |
17.9% |
away_by_3plus |
17.4% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
5.1% |
0-1 |
8.7% |
0-2 |
9.2% |
| 0-3 |
6.1% |
0-4 |
3.1% |
0-5 |
1.2% |
| 1-0 |
4.5% |
1-1 |
10.4% |
1-2 |
9.9% |
| 1-3 |
6.6% |
1-4 |
3.3% |
1-5 |
1.3% |
| 2-0 |
2.7% |
2-1 |
5.4% |
2-2 |
5.3% |
| 2-3 |
3.6% |
2-4 |
1.8% |
2-5 |
0.7% |
| 3-0 |
1.0% |
3-1 |
1.9% |
3-2 |
1.9% |
| 3-3 |
1.3% |
3-4 |
0.6% |
3-5 |
0.3% |
| 4-0 |
0.3% |
4-1 |
0.5% |
4-2 |
0.5% |
| 4-3 |
0.3% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.1% |
| 5-0 |
0.1% |
5-1 |
0.1% |
5-2 |
0.1% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.7% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
10.4% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
94.9% |
under_0.5 |
5.1% |
over_1.5 |
81.6% |
| under_1.5 |
18.4% |
over_2.5 |
59.3% |
under_2.5 |
40.7% |
| over_3.5 |
36.9% |
under_3.5 |
63.1% |
over_4.5 |
19.8% |
| under_4.5 |
80.3% |
over_5.5 |
9.2% |
under_5.5 |
90.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
66.0% |
under_0.5 |
34.0% |
over_1.5 |
29.3% |
| under_1.5 |
70.7% |
over_2.5 |
9.5% |
under_2.5 |
90.5% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
86.4% |
under_0.5 |
13.6% |
over_1.5 |
59.3% |
| under_1.5 |
40.7% |
over_2.5 |
32.2% |
under_2.5 |
67.8% |
|
most
| home |
19.5% |
draw |
22.4% |
away |
58.1% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
2.1% |
away_+2.5 |
97.9% |
home_-1.5 |
7.3% |
| away_+1.5 |
92.7% |
home_-0.5 |
19.5% |
away_+0.5 |
80.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
41.9% |
away_-0.5 |
58.1% |
home_+1.5 |
64.8% |
| away_-1.5 |
35.2% |
home_+2.5 |
82.6% |
away_-2.5 |
17.4% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
5.1% |
exact_1 |
13.2% |
exact_2 |
22.3% |
| exact_3 |
22.4% |
exact_4 |
17.2% |
exact_5 |
10.6% |
| exact_6 |
5.4% |
exact_7plus |
3.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
25.4% |
draw |
35.4% |
away |
39.2% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
79.1% |
under_0.5 |
20.8% |
over_1.5 |
46.5% |
| under_1.5 |
53.5% |
over_2.5 |
20.8% |
under_2.5 |
79.2% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
20.8% |
exact_1 |
32.7% |
exact_2 |
25.6% |
| exact_3 |
13.4% |
exact_4plus |
7.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
28.0% |
draw |
34.8% |
away |
37.2% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
80.4% |
under_0.5 |
19.6% |
over_1.5 |
48.4% |
| under_1.5 |
51.6% |
over_2.5 |
22.4% |
under_2.5 |
77.6% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
17.8% |
H/D |
5.0% |
H/A |
2.6% |
| D/H |
9.9% |
D/D |
12.3% |
D/A |
13.2% |
| A/H |
2.3% |
A/D |
5.7% |
A/A |
31.3% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
74.1% |
under_7.5 |
25.9% |
over_8.5 |
62.7% |
| under_8.5 |
37.3% |
over_9.5 |
50.7% |
under_9.5 |
49.3% |
| over_10.5 |
39.0% |
under_10.5 |
61.0% |
over_11.5 |
28.6% |
| under_11.5 |
71.4% |
over_12.5 |
20.0% |
under_12.5 |
80.0% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
71.6% |
under_3.5 |
28.4% |
over_4.5 |
55.9% |
| under_4.5 |
44.1% |
over_5.5 |
40.6% |
under_5.5 |
59.4% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
64.7% |
under_3.5 |
35.3% |
over_4.5 |
47.9% |
| under_4.5 |
52.1% |
over_5.5 |
32.8% |
under_5.5 |
67.2% |
|
most
| home |
49.9% |
draw |
10.8% |
away |
39.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
20.7% |
away_+3.5 |
79.3% |
home_-1.5 |
39.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
60.9% |
home_-0.5 |
49.9% |
away_+0.5 |
50.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
60.7% |
away_-0.5 |
39.3% |
home_+1.5 |
70.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
29.3% |
home_+3.5 |
86.1% |
away_-3.5 |
13.9% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
67.6% |
under_22.5 |
32.4% |
over_24.5 |
55.4% |
| under_24.5 |
44.6% |
over_26.5 |
43.1% |
under_26.5 |
56.9% |
| over_28.5 |
31.7% |
under_28.5 |
68.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
71.8% |
under_10.5 |
28.2% |
over_12.5 |
55.1% |
| under_12.5 |
44.9% |
over_14.5 |
38.5% |
under_14.5 |
61.5% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
62.9% |
under_10.5 |
37.1% |
over_12.5 |
44.9% |
| under_12.5 |
55.1% |
over_14.5 |
29.0% |
under_14.5 |
71.1% |
|
most
| home |
54.0% |
draw |
6.2% |
away |
39.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
29.8% |
away_+4.5 |
70.2% |
home_-2.5 |
41.5% |
| away_+2.5 |
58.5% |
home_-0.5 |
54.0% |
away_+0.5 |
46.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
60.2% |
away_-0.5 |
39.8% |
home_+2.5 |
71.7% |
| away_-2.5 |
28.3% |
home_+4.5 |
81.3% |
away_-4.5 |
18.7% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
79.0% |
under_6.5 |
21.0% |
over_7.5 |
68.2% |
| under_7.5 |
31.8% |
over_8.5 |
56.2% |
under_8.5 |
43.8% |
| over_9.5 |
44.2% |
under_9.5 |
55.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
68.2% |
under_3.5 |
31.8% |
over_4.5 |
51.2% |
| under_4.5 |
48.8% |
over_5.5 |
35.4% |
under_5.5 |
64.6% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
62.5% |
under_3.5 |
37.5% |
over_4.5 |
44.8% |
| under_4.5 |
55.2% |
over_5.5 |
29.4% |
under_5.5 |
70.6% |
|
most
| home |
48.3% |
draw |
12.2% |
away |
39.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
25.6% |
away_+2.5 |
74.4% |
home_-0.5 |
48.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
51.7% |
home_+0.5 |
60.6% |
away_-0.5 |
39.5% |
| home_+2.5 |
81.2% |
away_-2.5 |
18.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
72.4% |
under_2.5 |
27.6% |
over_3.5 |
51.8% |
| under_3.5 |
48.2% |
over_4.5 |
32.4% |
under_4.5 |
67.6% |
| over_5.5 |
17.8% |
under_5.5 |
82.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
50.9% |
under_1.5 |
49.1% |
over_2.5 |
24.5% |
| under_2.5 |
75.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
60.7% |
under_1.5 |
39.3% |
over_2.5 |
33.7% |
| under_2.5 |
66.3% |
most
| home |
32.7% |
draw |
21.1% |
away |
46.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
16.2% |
away_+1.5 |
83.8% |
home_-0.5 |
32.7% |
| away_+0.5 |
67.3% |
home_+0.5 |
53.8% |
away_-0.5 |
46.2% |
| home_+1.5 |
73.6% |
away_-1.5 |
26.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
72.2% |
under_20.5 |
27.8% |
over_22.5 |
58.6% |
| under_22.5 |
41.4% |
over_24.5 |
44.4% |
under_24.5 |
55.6% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
70.9% |
under_9.5 |
29.1% |
over_11.5 |
50.7% |
| under_11.5 |
49.3% |
over_13.5 |
31.7% |
under_13.5 |
68.3% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
73.3% |
under_9.5 |
26.7% |
over_11.5 |
53.7% |
| under_11.5 |
46.3% |
over_13.5 |
34.4% |
under_13.5 |
65.6% |
|
most
| home |
44.3% |
draw |
7.2% |
away |
48.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
24.7% |
away_+3.5 |
75.4% |
home_-0.5 |
44.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
55.7% |
home_+2.5 |
65.5% |
away_-2.5 |
34.5% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Ligue 1
Le Mans
Lens