ChampionshipStoke vs Swansea Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.0% for over 2.5 to 19.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Head to head on cards, Swansea are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.6%, with a level count at 21.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.3% | 80.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.7%
26.9%
60.9%
33.9%
Card handicap
| Stoke line | Stoke | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.7% | 82.4% |
| -0.5 | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| +0.5 | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| +1.5 | 74.7% | 25.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.3% | 72.8% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke | A Herczeg | 3 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Stoke | D Webb | 3 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| Stoke | E Bell | 3 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Swansea | A Backhouse | 5 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| Swansea | D Webb | 4 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Swansea | J Busby | 3 | 5.7 | 2.0 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
This season (2025/26)
2.0Stoke cards per game10.4Stoke fouls per game2.0Swansea cards per game9.9Swansea fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Stoke vs Swansea. Slightly more cards are projected for Swansea for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.8%Over 3.5 cards8.0%Any red card53.7%Stoke over 1.5 cards60.9%Swansea over 1.5 cards41.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Stoke over 1.5 cards sits at 53.7% and Swansea at 60.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.0% (Stoke 7.3%, Swansea 0.8%). Stoke’s most frequent referee this season, A Herczeg, has averaged 2.0 cards a game across 3 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Stoke have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Swansea 2.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Stoke vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.8% for Stoke vs Swansea.
Will there be a red card in Stoke vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Stoke vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated Swansea to pick up more cards at 44.6%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.