ChampionshipStoke vs Swansea Shots
Result
Settled, final score 1-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 46.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 59.2% for over 22.5 to 24.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.5%. On the shot count, Stoke are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.9%, with a level count at 6.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.2% | 75.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.8%
52.9%
36.6%
52.3%
34.4%
20.3%
Shot handicap
| Stoke line | Stoke | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.7% | 65.4% |
| -2.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| -0.5 | 59.9% | 40.2% |
| +0.5 | 66.0% | 34.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.7% | 63.3% |
This season (2025/26)
11.3Stoke shots per game12.3Swansea shots per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Stoke.
In-depth analysis
46.5%Over 24.5 shots52.9%Stoke over 12.5 shots34.4%Swansea over 12.5 shots60.9%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Stoke over 12.5 shots sits at 52.9% and Swansea at 34.4%. This season Stoke have averaged 11.3 shots a game and Swansea 12.3.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Stoke vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 46.5% for Stoke vs Swansea.
Which team will have more shots in Stoke vs Swansea?
Before kickoff, the model rated Stoke to take more shots at 59.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.