ChampionshipStoke vs Swansea Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Under 2.5 at 56.6% and it missed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Under 2.5 goals at 56.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Stoke have averaged 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded, Swansea 1.6 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 43.4% for over 2.5 and 70.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Stoke have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Swansea in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.4% | 9.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 3.5 goals | 22.4% | 77.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 9.8% | 90.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.7% | 96.3% |
Team goal lines
70.9%
35.0%
12.8%
69.2%
33.0%
11.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 61.8% | 38.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 7.3% | 92.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.8% | 82.2% |
This season (2025/26)
1.1Stoke goals scored per game1.2Stoke goals conceded per game43.5%Stoke Over 2.5 rate0.5Stoke 1st-half goals per game1.2Swansea goals scored per game1.3Swansea goals conceded per game50.0%Swansea Over 2.5 rate0.4Swansea 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
49.7%Both Teams to Score43.4%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 43.4% for three or more goals and 70.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Stoke favoured at 36.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Stoke to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Stoke 2 · 1 draws · Swansea 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Stoke vs Swansea?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 43.4%. The match finished with 3 goals (1-2), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,656 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.